"Which 2 do I bet? Doc Sartin's wagering guidelines - Pace and Cap

RichieP · 12-01-2009, 06:18 AM

Here is part of an email "RDSS Support" got last night. It is a problem many have from time to time including ME.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
"I need some help I am on a bad picking run; this has been going on a couple months. I don't have specific question and I have started to re-go over material on your web site.

The problem: I can't pick-um.

The problem isn't picking PL lines. I have my 4-5 contenders and they are usually hit the board. I can't pick the right 2 out of 5. I have been trying to hit woodbine's exactas. I end up with a lot of 3rd and 4th places, 1st (chalk) and 3rd + 4th . I was getting too focused on the top 2 B/L and the 3rd or 4th B/L would win.

So I would not bet the
1 and 2 B/L and one of them would win. I do focus on the EPR & LPR , I'd bet the #1 LPR and it won't win and so I look at all the factors and PP's and talk myself into another horse and the #1 LRP would win. I look at the PP's 2 or 3 horses catch my eye I'll go through RDSS and talk myself into a couple other horses and you guessed it.

And it would work the other way also a couple horses look good in RDSS (a factor or 2 would stand out) and they would end up not hitting the board. If I bet a win-place that horse will show.

It is like I have them surrounded but can't bring it home. I have picked a few good long shots. It sounds like a pace issue. I look at the ESP I just can't put my finger on it. I got myself talking to myself and cant'
pick-um."
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

This sure sounds familiar to me as I have lived it man. If it is ok here are 3 of my most important areas of feedback. The following post you will hear from the good doctor Howard Sartin himself.

1) In EVERY one of Howard's Followups dealing with the Validator advanced software he INSISTS we must HIDE for WIN:
a) Horse (s) who's odds are below our individual minimum odds requirements. Doc Sartin's minimum was 5/2.
b) Any other horse (s) who we will not bet for other reasons. Tom Brohamer also agreed with Howard saying that the ONLY horses we should have in our FINAL readouts are horses that we are prepared to BET.

The above guidelines are posted in EVERY one of Howard's Followups dealing with ADVANCED Methodology programs. This alone should be a serious wake up call to those struggling. It was to me for sure.

We are a "contrarian methodology" and this "hiding" is most contrarian concept of all in my opinion yet many cappers stop short of doing just what the creator of the Methodology INSISTS we must do to maximize profits.

2) Avoid focusing on individual corollaries for wagers. This can be disastrous (ask me how I know ok? Bill V can tell you stories of me doing this back when we all were together at the Meadowlands. No good to say the least).
Doc would call it "looking at individual trees instead of the forest or "bigger picture"

3) Make sure if you are a "Wagercapper" that you are playing a track (s) where the favs do not dominate. Howard taught Aline Best to surf the internet and wager/work tracks where this existed because Aline followed his instructions and would HIDE chalks. Betting tracks like Suffolk etc where favs are popping around 40% can quickly destroy your bankroll

One way to search for this today is to go to the Bris "at a glances" tab on the left side of this link:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/edito...ll_edition.cgi
There you can scroll the tracks and find the ones that have the lower % of winning favs. This also shows the average win price odds at each track.

Next post today I will post Doc's wager guidelines.

Finally a screen shot from Followup #83 of an article that EVERYONE looking to "Wagercap" MUST READ.

Bill V. · 12-01-2009, 08:58 AM

Hi Rich

lets review

The problem: I can't pick-um.
how many in a 20 race cycle ? 10/20 11/20 what is his/her average
winner 20 race cycle ??

I can't pick the right 2 out of 5. I have been trying to hit woodbine's exactas.
I end up with a lot of 3rd and 4th places, 1st (chalk) and 3rd + 4th

Then you should not bet exacta till you understand, read the %55 solution
manual and learn how to pick place horses

Then we get into I'm good at looking at this ... but here comes the neagtive
I look at the wrong readouts === Forest not the tree negatives

I'm good cause I get the winner in the top 2 here comes the negative
but then 3-4 wins

it must be a pace thing

The answers are in the follow up
you give excellent advice
The writer needs to ask himself/herself
Do I truely want to win ?
or do i want to play the game of the losing horse
player.

We all hve been there I can't say it enough listen to what you say
I am good but ...
Im bad at this bit I'm good too.. these are all problem within yourself

Again I am not trying to preach Docs work
I am just saying we all struggle but the answers are there

RichieP · 12-01-2009, 10:57 AM

The following are screen shots from Followup #79.
These are Doc's wagering guidelines.

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RichieP · 12-01-2009, 11:02 AM

Now please feel free to post questions, feedback, comments etc etc

ALL positive feedback is most welcome.

seattlesnake · 12-01-2009, 06:23 PM

Let us see where the problem lies ..if he usually has his top5 contenders and has them surrounded most of the time.... He should be able to see based on his record...his win % for each tier.....and bet accordingly...

I've provide my record on the left from last week as an example and this also can be applied for the exotics.... have him fill it in...and im sure he will see where his problem lies... and if he cant ... have him post it for analysis....

Attachment 18308

I know the feeling of ziggin when they r zagging and i end up getting smoked.... but it usually evens out in the end...if you have a barometer to base your losing/winning streaks on.

hope this helps...

Jess

BJennet · 12-02-2009, 01:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by seattlesnake

Let us see where the problem lies ..if he usually has his top5 contenders and has them surrounded most of the time.... He should be able to see based on his record...his win % for each tier.....and bet accordingly...

I've provide my record on the left from last week as an example and this also can be applied for the exotics.... have him fill it in...and im sure he will see where his problem lies... and if he cant ... have him post it for analysis....

Attachment 18308

I know the feeling of ziggin when they r zagging and i end up getting smoked.... but it usually evens out in the end...if you have a barometer to base your losing/winning streaks on.

hope this helps...

Jess

Jess,

Thanks for posting these excellent records. A couple of questions come to mind, but I understand, if you would rather not respond. It appears that your average hit rate for this period was about .22 for one horse, and double that for two, with average odds of about 5-1. I would also guess that given the relatively high average odds combined with high volume play, you were handicapping something on the order of 10-12 tracks a day. Is any of this true? Also, is your performance for this week representative of your longer-term play - say 1,500 or so races? Regardless of whether or not you can answer, congrats on an excellent performance.

Side note to Richie P., if he reads this: you might notice how close this ROI is too your own high-volume autopaceline performance. This is how you would have done with the bank of the typical pro poker or blackjack player - except that the BJ player would have needed 4X the handle to get .25 of this ROI.

Cheers,

BJennet

barb craven · 12-03-2009, 09:09 PM

I think I have to say something here. Last things first. I agree 100 % (not 110 ) with Ted. Rich is among the top of the list when it comes to teachers.

Both my son and Rich, primarily, have crammed an awful lot of knowledge into my head in the last two years. They are willing to do races live with me and this allows me to ask questions on the spot which, for me, is the best way to learn.

Some of what Rich has said is true.
I do work hard
I do enjoy this craft immensely
I can pick pace lines
I am betting real money

I am not the Aline Best of this decade. I wish I was. I aspire to become. But I am not.

Barb

12-01-2009, 08:58 AM	#2
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	Can'ts and Don'ts Hi Rich lets review The problem: I can't pick-um. how many in a 20 race cycle ? 10/20 11/20 what is his/her average winner 20 race cycle ?? I can't pick the right 2 out of 5. I have been trying to hit woodbine's exactas. I end up with a lot of 3rd and 4th places, 1st (chalk) and 3rd + 4th Then you should not bet exacta till you understand, read the %55 solution manual and learn how to pick place horses Then we get into I'm good at looking at this ... but here comes the neagtive I look at the wrong readouts === Forest not the tree negatives I'm good cause I get the winner in the top 2 here comes the negative but then 3-4 wins it must be a pace thing The answers are in the follow up you give excellent advice The writer needs to ask himself/herself Do I truely want to win ? or do i want to play the game of the losing horse player. We all hve been there I can't say it enough listen to what you say I am good but ... Im bad at this bit I'm good too.. these are all problem within yourself Again I am not trying to preach Docs work I am just saying we all struggle but the answers are there Last edited by Bill V.; 12-01-2009 at 07:13 PM.

12-01-2009, 10:57 AM	#3
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	The following are screen shots from Followup #79. These are Doc's wagering guidelines. Last edited by Ted Craven; 12-01-2009 at 11:16 AM.

12-01-2009, 06:23 PM	#5
seattlesnake Grade 1 Join Date: May 2009 Location: Las Vegas Posts: 304	Sounds Like Record Keeping Issue Let us see where the problem lies ..if he usually has his top5 contenders and has them surrounded most of the time.... He should be able to see based on his record...his win % for each tier.....and bet accordingly... I've provide my record on the left from last week as an example and this also can be applied for the exotics.... have him fill it in...and im sure he will see where his problem lies... and if he cant ... have him post it for analysis.... Attachment 18308 I know the feeling of ziggin when they r zagging and i end up getting smoked.... but it usually evens out in the end...if you have a barometer to base your losing/winning streaks on. hope this helps... Jess Last edited by seattlesnake; 08-06-2010 at 11:42 AM.

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12-01-2009, 06:18 AM	#1
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	"Which 2 do I bet? Doc Sartin's wagering guidelines Here is part of an email "RDSS Support" got last night. It is a problem many have from time to time including ME. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- "I need some help I am on a bad picking run; this has been going on a couple months. I don't have specific question and I have started to re-go over material on your web site. The problem: I can't pick-um. The problem isn't picking PL lines. I have my 4-5 contenders and they are usually hit the board. I can't pick the right 2 out of 5. I have been trying to hit woodbine's exactas. I end up with a lot of 3rd and 4th places, 1st (chalk) and 3rd + 4th . I was getting too focused on the top 2 B/L and the 3rd or 4th B/L would win. So I would not bet the 1 and 2 B/L and one of them would win. I do focus on the EPR & LPR , I'd bet the #1 LPR and it won't win and so I look at all the factors and PP's and talk myself into another horse and the #1 LRP would win. I look at the PP's 2 or 3 horses catch my eye I'll go through RDSS and talk myself into a couple other horses and you guessed it. And it would work the other way also a couple horses look good in RDSS (a factor or 2 would stand out) and they would end up not hitting the board. If I bet a win-place that horse will show. It is like I have them surrounded but can't bring it home. I have picked a few good long shots. It sounds like a pace issue. I look at the ESP I just can't put my finger on it. I got myself talking to myself and cant' pick-um." -------------------------------------------------------------------------- This sure sounds familiar to me as I have lived it man. If it is ok here are 3 of my most important areas of feedback. The following post you will hear from the good doctor Howard Sartin himself. 1) In EVERY one of Howard's Followups dealing with the Validator advanced software he INSISTS we must HIDE for WIN: a) Horse (s) who's odds are below our individual minimum odds requirements. Doc Sartin's minimum was 5/2. b) Any other horse (s) who we will not bet for other reasons. Tom Brohamer also agreed with Howard saying that the ONLY horses we should have in our FINAL readouts are horses that we are prepared to BET. The above guidelines are posted in EVERY one of Howard's Followups dealing with ADVANCED Methodology programs. This alone should be a serious wake up call to those struggling. It was to me for sure. We are a "contrarian methodology" and this "hiding" is most contrarian concept of all in my opinion yet many cappers stop short of doing just what the creator of the Methodology INSISTS we must do to maximize profits. 2) Avoid focusing on individual corollaries for wagers. This can be disastrous (ask me how I know ok? Bill V can tell you stories of me doing this back when we all were together at the Meadowlands. No good to say the least). Doc would call it "looking at individual trees instead of the forest or "bigger picture" 3) Make sure if you are a "Wagercapper" that you are playing a track (s) where the favs do not dominate. Howard taught Aline Best to surf the internet and wager/work tracks where this existed because Aline followed his instructions and would HIDE chalks. Betting tracks like Suffolk etc where favs are popping around 40% can quickly destroy your bankroll One way to search for this today is to go to the Bris "at a glances" tab on the left side of this link: http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/edito...ll_edition.cgi There you can scroll the tracks and find the ones that have the lower % of winning favs. This also shows the average win price odds at each track. Next post today I will post Doc's wager guidelines. Finally a screen shot from Followup #83 of an article that EVERYONE looking to "Wagercap" MUST READ. Attached Images

12-01-2009, 11:02 AM	#4
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	Now please feel free to post questions, feedback, comments etc etc ALL positive feedback is most welcome.

12-03-2009, 09:09 PM	#7
barb craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Bobcaygeon,On,Canada Posts: 1,316	I think I have to say something here. Last things first. I agree 100 % (not 110 ) with Ted. Rich is among the top of the list when it comes to teachers. Both my son and Rich, primarily, have crammed an awful lot of knowledge into my head in the last two years. They are willing to do races live with me and this allows me to ask questions on the spot which, for me, is the best way to learn. Some of what Rich has said is true. I do work hard I do enjoy this craft immensely I can pick pace lines I am betting real money I am not the Aline Best of this decade. I wish I was. I aspire to become. But I am not. Barb __________________ Listen...Learn...Stay Safe.