PHA Jan 23 Race 9 - Pace and Cap

cprescigno · 01-23-2006, 08:49 PM

Anyone catch that $102 winner in the ninth at Philly today?
Track was listed as Muddy weather Showery.

Charlie

Binder · 01-24-2006, 01:38 AM

Hey Charlie
I was unable to look at Philly till tonite
This might look good for the winner but
In the next screen shot I will show the the winner # 5 ,I
would probably miss this one because of the last 4 poor efforts

Binder · 01-24-2006, 01:42 AM

Here is the past performance screen for the 50/1 winner

2 problems
1. I wouldn't go down to line 5. This seems to be Morgans level
AlwNw2
Here are the conditions

PHA0123 9 8.3 D AL 4+ $22,000 3:50PM
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS
AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO
RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR
STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE
RACES. Weight, 122 lbs. Non-winners of a
race at one mile or over since December
23 Allowed 3 lbs. Such a race since
November 23 Allowed 5 lbs. (Maiden,
Claiming, and Starter races not
considered).

2. Lines from the Medowlands are too fast and I have nothing in the last 4 races to justify this 88 SR

cprescigno · 01-24-2006, 04:30 AM

Looking at your BL screen caused me to download the race card and take a look through Spec. I actually ran it through both Spec and Val. Very different results from one to the other.
Using Spec I can see the 10 in my top 5 contenders and also the 7 but using the DECL numbers Spec favors the 5-10. I use the Decl numbers a lot to reinforce my decision.
Not sure I would have gone with the 5. Can't say now for sure knowing that I know he won the race and I elected to stay out today due to the weather.
I think under normal circumstances I would go with line 5. It's one of two choices, either go with that line or leave him out. I don't like to leave them out and prefer the program to sort it out for me. I did leave out the 1 horse.
Here is the pacelines I used. I went with the weaker line on the 10 I think. Val selected the stronger line.

cprescigno · 01-24-2006, 04:32 AM

Here's the BL/BL Screen using Spec.

cprescigno · 01-24-2006, 04:36 AM

And here is the Summary screen. Like I said, I use the DECL raw numbers frequently to support a decision. Here it points to the 5-10. I don't how to pick the 7 but he comes in top 5 contenders.

01-23-2006, 08:49 PM	#1
cprescigno Spec Rookie Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: NYC Posts: 258	PHA Jan 23 Race 9 Anyone catch that $102 winner in the ninth at Philly today? Track was listed as Muddy weather Showery. Charlie

01-24-2006, 01:38 AM	#2
Binder Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Northern NJ Posts: 674	Missed this Hey Charlie I was unable to look at Philly till tonite This might look good for the winner but In the next screen shot I will show the the winner # 5 ,I would probably miss this one because of the last 4 poor efforts Attached Images

01-24-2006, 01:42 AM	#3
Binder Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Northern NJ Posts: 674	Winner Here is the past performance screen for the 50/1 winner 2 problems 1. I wouldn't go down to line 5. This seems to be Morgans level AlwNw2 Here are the conditions PHA0123 9 8.3 D AL 4+ $22,000 3:50PM (PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. Weight, 122 lbs. Non-winners of a race at one mile or over since December 23 Allowed 3 lbs. Such a race since November 23 Allowed 5 lbs. (Maiden, Claiming, and Starter races not considered). 2. Lines from the Medowlands are too fast and I have nothing in the last 4 races to justify this 88 SR Attached Images Last edited by Binder; 01-24-2006 at 01:54 AM.

01-24-2006, 04:30 AM	#4
cprescigno Spec Rookie Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: NYC Posts: 258	Looking at your BL screen caused me to download the race card and take a look through Spec. I actually ran it through both Spec and Val. Very different results from one to the other. Using Spec I can see the 10 in my top 5 contenders and also the 7 but using the DECL numbers Spec favors the 5-10. I use the Decl numbers a lot to reinforce my decision. Not sure I would have gone with the 5. Can't say now for sure knowing that I know he won the race and I elected to stay out today due to the weather. I think under normal circumstances I would go with line 5. It's one of two choices, either go with that line or leave him out. I don't like to leave them out and prefer the program to sort it out for me. I did leave out the 1 horse. Here is the pacelines I used. I went with the weaker line on the 10 I think. Val selected the stronger line. Attached Images

01-24-2006, 04:32 AM	#5
cprescigno Spec Rookie Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: NYC Posts: 258	Here's the BL/BL Screen using Spec. Attached Images

01-24-2006, 04:36 AM	#6
cprescigno Spec Rookie Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: NYC Posts: 258	And here is the Summary screen. Like I said, I use the DECL raw numbers frequently to support a decision. Here it points to the 5-10. I don't how to pick the 7 but he comes in top 5 contenders. Attached Images