Value betting - Corrolary support - Pace and Cap

RichieP · 03-08-2010, 08:52 AM

This was a horse and race I showed Barb yesterday around noon.

The race was the 11th at Gulfstream and I laid out all the reasons why I thought the #6 Al Nasr Dream had a great chance to win at a big price.

While he did NOT win he placed at over 14/1 and keyed an exacta EASILY gettable by using best of last 3 and key boxing him around your other tiered contenders. The exacta paid over 200 clams for a deuce.

WHY him?
1) Off a 100 day layoff - right away most probably value built in as these guys scare off bettors yes even on grass events.

2) The last time he came back to the races off a similar 100 day layoff was his FIFTH race back and it was a turf route WIN at Tampa Bay. Right away happy thoughts as he can WIN off layoff of today's length.

3) Workouts - LOOK at his works coming to today! 4f breeze 5 days ago but the work 11 days back got me a going

8f work on the deep Calder surface. This trainer at least to me wants this horse ready to run TODAY. I dont see too many mile works do you?

4) Readout strength - Tiered very highly and has 1 and 2 ranks in many key categories such as - Total Energy - Fw - FX - Prime line score - V/dc - Entropy - Sup and Fractals

Just wanted to throw this out there and even though he couldn't last to the wire I feel this was a great value bet.

Here are his pp's,the result chart and my Bl/Bl before hides

RichieP · 03-08-2010, 08:55 AM

Here are the full pps for all the horses with the middle tab set on Primary

RichieP · 03-08-2010, 08:56 AM

cont

RichieP · 03-08-2010, 08:58 AM

..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6-lEsXVAjas&feature=fvw

alydar_ David · 03-08-2010, 12:36 PM

Nice analysis, Richie. And it sure makes it easy to follow along when you insert all those screen shots.

I also played this race and used corollary support, but of a different kind.

You and I have different contenders and pacelines (what else is new :>)

Based on my BL/BL screen, #7 Don'twait Toolong looks like a clear winner with a 5 point BL/BL spread over the second choice.

However, one of the first things I noticed was courtesy of Bill Varone. #1 Blazen is a "Binder Improver" -- He is ranked fourth on the BL/BL screen, but he is listed as "2" under VDC. So, he goes fourth to second. That's the Binder Improver.

The corollary support I used for this was my Gulfstream Park model.

According to my model for this type of race: 100% of all winners are ranked first or second in VDC and SPN. Only two horses fit that here: #7 and #1.

Incidental support: 100% of winners have an ESP of "S" or "L". The E/L range is from -6.0 to -29.6.

RichieP · 03-08-2010, 05:16 PM

David
That is excellent work with your models matey!

I see a few times now from your posts that you do NOT depend on one factor but look for 2 or possibly more that corroborate one another with your model reads. That is big

03-08-2010, 08:55 AM	#2
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	Here are the full pps for all the horses with the middle tab set on Primary Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

03-08-2010, 08:56 AM	#3
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	cont Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

03-08-2010, 08:58 AM	#4
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	.. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6-lEsXVAjas&feature=fvw Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

03-08-2010, 12:36 PM	#5
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Nice analysis, Richie. And it sure makes it easy to follow along when you insert all those screen shots. I also played this race and used corollary support, but of a different kind. You and I have different contenders and pacelines (what else is new :>) Based on my BL/BL screen, #7 Don'twait Toolong looks like a clear winner with a 5 point BL/BL spread over the second choice. However, one of the first things I noticed was courtesy of Bill Varone. #1 Blazen is a "Binder Improver" -- He is ranked fourth on the BL/BL screen, but he is listed as "2" under VDC. So, he goes fourth to second. That's the Binder Improver. The corollary support I used for this was my Gulfstream Park model. According to my model for this type of race: 100% of all winners are ranked first or second in VDC and SPN. Only two horses fit that here: #7 and #1. Incidental support: 100% of winners have an ESP of "S" or "L". The E/L range is from -6.0 to -29.6. Attached Images

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03-08-2010, 08:52 AM	#1
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	Value betting - Corrolary support This was a horse and race I showed Barb yesterday around noon. The race was the 11th at Gulfstream and I laid out all the reasons why I thought the #6 Al Nasr Dream had a great chance to win at a big price. While he did NOT win he placed at over 14/1 and keyed an exacta EASILY gettable by using best of last 3 and key boxing him around your other tiered contenders. The exacta paid over 200 clams for a deuce. WHY him? 1) Off a 100 day layoff - right away most probably value built in as these guys scare off bettors yes even on grass events. 2) The last time he came back to the races off a similar 100 day layoff was his FIFTH race back and it was a turf route WIN at Tampa Bay. Right away happy thoughts as he can WIN off layoff of today's length. 3) Workouts - LOOK at his works coming to today! 4f breeze 5 days ago but the work 11 days back got me a going 8f work on the deep Calder surface. This trainer at least to me wants this horse ready to run TODAY. I dont see too many mile works do you? 4) Readout strength - Tiered very highly and has 1 and 2 ranks in many key categories such as - Total Energy - Fw - FX - Prime line score - V/dc - Entropy - Sup and Fractals Just wanted to throw this out there and even though he couldn't last to the wire I feel this was a great value bet. Here are his pp's,the result chart and my Bl/Bl before hides Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!" Last edited by RichieP; 03-08-2010 at 08:59 AM.

03-08-2010, 05:16 PM	#6
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	David That is excellent work with your models matey! I see a few times now from your posts that you do NOT depend on one factor but look for 2 or possibly more that corroborate one another with your model reads. That is big __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"