SAR 3rd race today

[alydar_ David]

Here's how I use my models to handicap. Note, this is only one way, not necessarily the best way.

First, I see if can get the race down to five contenders. In this race I could not. In my opinion all seven horses are contenders. Here they are and the paceline I chose is indicated.

[alydar_ David]

The remainder of the field:

[alydar_ David]

Here is the Primary screen. Looking at Total Energy, Perceptor Total and Prinary LS I'll eliminate the worst ranked horses until I get it down to five horses.

#2 is the worst in all three categories. Out she goes. #1 is ranked fifth in TE, sixth in Per and LS. Out she goes. I'm down to five horses.

[alydar_ David]

Here is the BL/BL screen:

[alydar_ David]

My model indicates 100% of the winners are ranked first or second in TE and TS.

Total Energy = #6 #4

True Speed = #4 #3

At this point I am very interested in betting #4.

Let's check %Med:
#5 is close, but doesn't quite fit
#7 doesn't fit

Let's check E/L:
#7 is way too late
#3 is just outside the range, but I wouldn't toss her on this alone

In summary, unless the odds are prohibitive I'm going to bet #4 to win. The second win bet will be determined by the post time odds.

That's how I do it.

[alydar_ David]

Here's the Energy screen:

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by alydar_David

Let's check %Med:
#5 is close, but doesn't quite fit
#7 doesn't fit

Let's check E/L:
#7 is way too late
#3 is just outside the range, but I wouldn't toss her on this alone

Nice job!

Personally, I agree with all your line selections EXCEPT for the 7 horse.
Personally, I would have eliminated the horse for not having a line in the last 90 days at a similar distance AND surface.

You eliminated the 7 horse because its’ median energy “didn’t fit” your model and also because its’ E/L was “way too late”. The reason for that median energy and E/L comes from your use of a turf race. I think if you had to use the 7 horse, using line 6 would give you a different median energy and E/L number. Not that you would play the 7 horse, but it would give you a better perspective on the horse given that today’s race is on the dirt.

[pktruckdriver]

Originally Posted by alydar_David

My model indicates 100% of the winners are ranked first or second in TE and TS.

Total Energy = #6 #4

True Speed = #4 #3

At this point I am very interested in betting #4.

Let's check %Med:
#5 is close, but doesn't quite fit
#7 doesn't fit

Let's check E/L:
#7 is way too late
#3 is just outside the range, but I wouldn't toss her on this alone

In summary, unless the odds are prohibitive I'm going to bet #4 to win. The second win bet will be determined by the post time odds.

That's how I do it.

David great stuff, but here is where you lose me, the %Med and e/l , where can I read more about this, is it in a specific Follow-up, as I scanned and read many of them, and those I thought were helpful to me I re-read a few times.
Great still, thanks

Patrick