Pace Line Practice Pick - Pace and Cap

Bill V. · 10-15-2011, 09:17 AM

Hi
Here is a example of something I see once in a while
If line 1 is good but lines below are good
Here is when Line 3 is good.

This horse is runnung in Race 6 today at Lurael

I used line 3

Here are my thoughts about using line 3
I have read about layoff lines Not to use the last race before or after
a long layoff

I think line 3 is ok here

Line 3 is a win
In 5 of 7 races before the layoff Winning Drive had 5 plus races
Did the trainer give the horse a nice vacation after earning so well for
a while

In the return race it ran at 5.5 at PID on poly soft surface easy work out ?

In last race Winning Drive won at 5.5 furlongs

I think line 3 is better for todays 6.0 distance

My mentor suggest not using 5.5 lines in longer races because the
turn time on a 5.5 race is the only true turn time when the horses
run the fraction on the turn

Thanks looking forward to comments and ideas

Bill

tom · 10-15-2011, 10:56 AM

MY 2 cents - I would put in lines 1,3,5,and 6 and look at them all.
Much like using K Gen, is any line abberent to the others? If not, I would use any of them. Third off a layoff after showing improvement is a powerful angle that can mean continued improvement today. I would like to see that the last race was not the best of the four.

Bill V. · 10-15-2011, 11:21 AM

Tom I entered lines 1 3 5 and 6 into KGEN

Likes Line 5 the best

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Bill V. · 10-15-2011, 11:24 AM

So line five looks much better than the rest on the readouts

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alydar_ David · 10-15-2011, 11:56 AM

I see no reason to look further than the last line here. It's a representative race where the horse ran well and it's not a top.

Just for your information, and not having anything to do with paceline selection, the horse has a 4% chance of running a new top and a 19% chance of running as well as it did three races back.

Well, I guess that does have something to do with paceline selection, but you wouldn't have that information based on what you're looking at.

What would be more confusing would be if the last race were run on a synthethic surface, but that's moot.

Incidentally, The Elevator will be very tough to beat this race.

JimG · 10-15-2011, 12:00 PM

When using RDSS, I use the last line, unless I see a significant reason not to. In this case, the last line looks okay to use to me.

Jim

delmarscott2004 · 10-15-2011, 01:37 PM

Good Morning Bill

I am using the last line , it's within norm of it's speed ratings , race class and somewhat current .
I am looking at a Trifecta using the 1 line 1 , 7 line 1 , 6 line 1 and the 4 line 2

Scott

10-15-2011, 09:17 AM	#1
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	Pace Line Practice Pick Hi Here is a example of something I see once in a while If line 1 is good but lines below are good Here is when Line 3 is good. This horse is runnung in Race 6 today at Lurael I used line 3 Here are my thoughts about using line 3 I have read about layoff lines Not to use the last race before or after a long layoff I think line 3 is ok here Line 3 is a win In 5 of 7 races before the layoff Winning Drive had 5 plus races Did the trainer give the horse a nice vacation after earning so well for a while In the return race it ran at 5.5 at PID on poly soft surface easy work out ? In last race Winning Drive won at 5.5 furlongs I think line 3 is better for todays 6.0 distance My mentor suggest not using 5.5 lines in longer races because the turn time on a 5.5 race is the only true turn time when the horses run the fraction on the turn Thanks looking forward to comments and ideas Bill Attached Images

10-15-2011, 11:21 AM	#3
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	Thanks Tom Tom I entered lines 1 3 5 and 6 into KGEN Likes Line 5 the best

10-15-2011, 11:24 AM	#4
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	Thoro So line five looks much better than the rest on the readouts

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10-15-2011, 10:56 AM	#2
tom Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 644	MY 2 cents - I would put in lines 1,3,5,and 6 and look at them all. Much like using K Gen, is any line abberent to the others? If not, I would use any of them. Third off a layoff after showing improvement is a powerful angle that can mean continued improvement today. I would like to see that the last race was not the best of the four.

10-15-2011, 11:56 AM	#5
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	I see no reason to look further than the last line here. It's a representative race where the horse ran well and it's not a top. Just for your information, and not having anything to do with paceline selection, the horse has a 4% chance of running a new top and a 19% chance of running as well as it did three races back. Well, I guess that does have something to do with paceline selection, but you wouldn't have that information based on what you're looking at. What would be more confusing would be if the last race were run on a synthethic surface, but that's moot. Incidentally, The Elevator will be very tough to beat this race.

10-15-2011, 12:00 PM	#6
JimG Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 992	When using RDSS, I use the last line, unless I see a significant reason not to. In this case, the last line looks okay to use to me. Jim

10-15-2011, 01:37 PM	#7
delmarscott2004 delmarscott2004 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Orange County California Posts: 132	Good Morning Bill I am using the last line , it's within norm of it's speed ratings , race class and somewhat current . I am looking at a Trifecta using the 1 line 1 , 7 line 1 , 6 line 1 and the 4 line 2 Scott