How much does hit rate deteriorate as odds rise?

[BJennet]

This is a very important question which I don't see addressed very often. When compiling statistics on handicapping methods or factors, handicappers will usually seek the average hit rate and odds of the relevant factors. One of the mistakes that is often seen is the assumption that the hit rate remains uniform throughout the full odds range. But anyone who has compiled such statistics in even a casual manner knows that the hit rate invariably drops as the odds rise. The key question is, do they rise out of the range of positive ROI.

Since we've been discussing NP extensively, we can use that as an example. If one looks at Bill Lyster's detailed 507 race survey of New Pace, the average hit rate for NP was roughly 75% (can't access this link from my present location). Yet, when one looks at the subset of longshot winners between 7-1 and 20-1, as I did, you see that the hit rate declined dramatically toward the rate of 2-2.5% per horse with the expected negative ROI. BTW, since this has been controversial, I'm not trying to single out NP - this happens with nearly every handicapping method and factor - positive ROI is the rare exception, not the typical result.

So, for those who are looking at their records, but don't usually consider this, one question you might want to ask is, not, 'what percentage of 4-1 shots did my handicapping hit', but rather, 'of my picks that went off at 4-1, did my hit rate yield positive ROI'.

Any feedback appreciated.

Cheers,

B Jennet

[partsnut]

I respect the hard work and research BJennet has done which makes for some interesting and informative reading.

I myself, prefer to keep things simple.

Here's a link that I found that seems to be a very simple way to play overlays (value) and gives one a good idea of what it's all about.
See if you agree.
http://youtu.be/hUClQar60Ao

[BJennet]

Originally Posted by partsnut

I respect the hard work and research BJennet has done which makes for some interesting and informative reading.

I myself, prefer to keep things simple.

Here's a link that I found that seems to be a very simple way to play overlays (value) and gives one a good idea of what it's all about.
See if you agree.
http://youtu.be/hUClQar60Ao

Hi Bill,

I understand that everyone has a different approach to the game. Best of luck.

Cheers,

B Jennet

[Rverge]

dick mitchell and mark creamer talked-video-wrote about this in there books and dvds. I think one maybe now has to lower there min. odds from eg. 4-1 to 5-2 or so. as mitchell has wrote:"why leave money on the table". and creamer states (para) "tough watching your 6/5 cross the finish first w/ no money on the horse"
just thinking parts

[partsnut]

Rverge

Rverge

Rverge:

dick mitchell and mark creamer talked-video-wrote about this in there books and dvds. I think one maybe now has to lower there min. odds from eg. 4-1 to 5-2 or so. as mitchell has wrote:"why leave money on the table". and creamer states (para) "tough watching your 6/5 cross the finish first w/ no money on the horse"
just thinking parts

Hi John,

What I have found and have read is that If you consider the risk versus reward aspect and the consistency one would have to have in order to maintain 6/5 shots, you will soon see that over the long run this would be a borderline break even or a losing play.
There are some that believe that the high odds "value" horses are the way to go.
Recently, I have been watching a few videos from "Full Card Reports" an advertiser on this site whose system advocates playing pricey overlays or value horses from a prescribed and select type of race. There were certain aspects of these sheets that peaked my interest. The videos as I see it are taken out of context and does not offer enough consistency on a given day or over time at a specific or single track, to maintain a positive ROI.
It seems to be a hit or miss affair where the provider singles out a few races that paid big from all conceivable tracks running on a given day. It's like someone stacking the deck or making the pieces of the puzzle fit.
Additionally, in order to achieve the proported success rate the provider
claims to have achieved, one would need have an abnormal amount of money (as far as I'm concerned) in each and every playable race.

The bottom line is that one has to feel comfortable playing within an odds range where his or her hit rate maintains a positive ROI.
As far as I'm concerned, there is is no fixed odds number. It's what you achieve on average. So,on occasion, betting on a short priced horse can be warranted if you are reasonably certain and feel this horse will not be beaten. Most of us would rather pass this type of race.
I would not recommend a steady diet of these type bets.

I would recommend playing within your comfort zone. You will soon find out where your successful betting range is.
There is software available that can track this for you.

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by partsnut

Hi John,
Recently, I have been watching a few videos from "Full Card Reports" an advertiser on this site.

Just for the record, unlike say PaceAdvantage, there are no paid, individual advertisers on this site, except for the Google ads, which I agree are indeed ads. There are permanent links to organizations we support and services we use: HANA and TrackMaster.

But I do get the gist of the rest of your post.

Ted