The Big A - Sunday 11/6 - TM 100 Race Class

[RichieP]

Here is the 7th from Aquduct on Sunday. Very best of luck/ skill to all who jump in

[RichieP]

,,,

[Bill Lyster]

conditions of this race:

For 3 YO and up that have not won 3 races (but races entered for $20,000 or less not considered)

OR

3 YO that have not won in 6 months (not counting races entered for $20,000 or less)

The 2, 9 and 7 are older than 3 YO;

The two has one win at NW1X and last was at 25K with Adj SR of 84; probable pace setter in 23.1-46.4-110.7

The nine has not won in 8 starts this year, but has recently run poorly at 50K claimers; best race was at 25K level in race 6. Adj SR of the 25K race = 69; Adj SR in last two was 73 and 76, average for this field, but probably not good enuf;

The 7 has been 2nd at this level in open 25K claimers with Adj SRs of 84 and 83

The 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 8 are 3YO;
1 - E but slow
3 - P but no good routes; looks slow
4 - P or SP with 4 wins since May 6 but all are at C 10K level, Adj SR of 87 but last was best by two and horse never repeats best efforts; usual range is 74-76
5 - E looks to be rounding into form; best line is 23.4-46.1-110.3
6 - Started year with high hopes; wired field at GP in 24.2-46.9-112; ran a credible 2nd at Woodbine in a 150K stake; pressed and finished 3rd in a 35K claimer in last. Strong contender if he chooses to press - Adj SR of 71; GP routes ran in 83 and 79
8 - Been pressing in sprints and pressed well in one route, with Adj SR of 82

Its just a loose observation for this race but it seems that of the horses that have run routes and sprints locally that the adjusted speed ratings are better for routes than for sprints, so before I eliminate anyone I will match sprint lines to sprint lines and routes to routes.

I'll do that in the morning when I have more time.

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster

conditions of this race:

For 3 YO and up that have not won 3 races (but races entered for $20,000 or less not considered)

OR

3 YO that have not won in 6 months (not counting races entered for $20,000 or less)

The 2, 9 and 7 are older than 3 YO;

The two has one win at NW1X and last was at 25K with Adj SR of 84; probable pace setter in 23.1-46.4-110.7

The nine has not won in 8 starts this year, but has recently run poorly at 50K claimers; best race was at 25K level in race 6. Adj SR of the 25K race = 69; Adj SR in last two was 73 and 76, average for this field, but probably not good enuf;

The 7 has been 2nd at this level in open 25K claimers with Adj SRs of 84 and 83

The 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 8 are 3YO;
1 - E but slow
3 - P but no good routes; looks slow
4 - P or SP with 4 wins since May 6 but all are at C 10K level, Adj SR of 87 but last was best by two and horse never repeats best efforts; usual range is 74-76
5 - E looks to be rounding into form; best line is 23.4-46.1-110.3
6 - Started year with high hopes; wired field at GP in 24.2-46.9-112; ran a credible 2nd at Woodbine in a 150K stake; pressed and finished 3rd in a 35K claimer in last. Strong contender if he chooses to press - Adj SR of 71; GP routes ran in 83 and 79
8 - Been pressing in sprints and pressed well in one route, with Adj SR of 82

Its just a loose observation for this race but it seems that of the horses that have run routes and sprints locally that the adjusted speed ratings are better for routes than for sprints, so before I eliminate anyone I will match sprint lines to sprint lines and routes to routes.

I'll do that in the morning when I have more time.

Morning Bill
Just a heads up that the TPR and "adjusted" SR you are seeing on my middle tab are RAW numbers UNADJUSTED by TM for track to track or daily variant. There IS a distance adjustment made by the software itself (I believe mostly involving the first fraction,call)

Best of luck and GREAT work on the Marathon races man

[Seven Furlongs]

For brevity's sake, I see this as a race between the 6, 7, and the 8. I projected a loose first two call time/range at 22.7-23.1 and 45.8-46.2.

Analysis:

The #1 horse will suffer a second call disadvantage at the projected pace. Pass

The #2 horse, Joan's Choice, I tossed because the horse has not worked out in 24 days and and the projected calls would put the horse just slightly out of its comfort zone. Possible exactor horse as it would be a counter energy horse to #s 7 & 8, though there may be a form issue.

The #3 horse 'Cards…' would be okay if the projected pace were for a 6f pace, the horse will most likely fade and drop out of the picture. Plus, its workouts have become progressively worse.

#4 horse finds its comfort zone with a 48-49 second call time. Pass

#5 horse finds its comfort zone with a 47-49 second call time. Pass.

#6 Black N Beauty, most likely a presser in this race. The projected pace range will most likely compromise the horse's ability to win.

#7 Cinder Cone, E/P. Will battle with Iron Lou for the lead and define the parameters/shape of the first two calls. The #7 and #8 will largely be responsible for turning the thumb screws (if horses had thumbs) on the other horses and inflicting pain.

#8 Iron Lou, E. As above, though if on form he looks to be best horse in the field. Workouts look like the horse may be rounding in to form.

#9 Almighty Pace. Would require a bit more leisurely pace at the first two calls to win. Pass.

To conclude, I'd say either the 7 or the 8 will win, with a slight nod to the 8.

[Bill V.]

My KGEN

H1 Good APV/CR Line 1 Moves up ? last race 84 Speed rating
H2 APV/CR not so good Line 1 only 84 Speed
H3 APV/CR not so good No line moves up from 10M claimer
and stretches out Should have showed morein race 3 or 4 to
consider at 25M
H4 APV/CR low I ran lines 1 3 4 and 7 in KGEN Line 1 looks
out of wack. Line 3 and 4 are the same Everybody wants this
horse at 10-16 level as it keeps getting claimed maybe
this trainer knows something But I can't trust line 1
line 2 at 16 was a dud so No line
H5 APV/CR middle Never runs 2 races in a row always
layoffs after races. Last line 77 Speed is too slow
but that was at 6.0 The fact that its dropping from op 35
to 25 plus finally coming back two races in a row say give line
1 a look
H6 Line 2 APV/CR Top been running well early against much better
makes sense drop line 1 and 2 are sprints but line 2 is 7f and
I will adjust it to 8.0
H7 APV/CR fair Line 1 and 2 are at 25M benn right there 2 in these races
at 25 with 85 and 86 speed ratings so I will use both lines

H8 APV/CR good/hi Same deal as Horse 7 Been right there last two
at this level I ran both line 1 and 4 Speed ratings 83 and 85
in KGEN since Line 4 matches the other routers on KEXDC
I will use that line Line 4
H8 APV/CR fair But nothing over 80 Speed ratings since layoff
8 races back No Line

Top 5 apv/cr speed ratings
H1 2 + 3 = 5 = 2.5 ** SP 84
H2 9 + 8 = 17 = 8.5 X SP 84
H3 6 + 7 = 13 = 6.5 X 
H4 7 + 4 = 11 = 5.5 **
H5 5 + 6 = 11 = 5.5 ** SP 77 X
H6 1 + 1 = 2 = 1   **  SP 80
H7 8 + 5 = 5 = 2.5 **  SP 85 86 
H8 3 + 2 = 5 = 2.5 **  SP 85
H9 4 + 9 = 13 = 6.5 X

Contenders into KGEN 1 6 7 8

[Bill V.]

The I hid the wrong horse on my screen shot
I wanted to take out the 7 8.5 line since the 8 furlong line was better

anyway win bets 1 and 7







Bill V.

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster

conditions of this race:

For 3 YO and up that have not won 3 races (but races entered for $20,000 or less not considered)

OR

3 YO that have not won in 6 months (not counting races entered for $20,000 or less)

Hello Bill,

Here is a condition from PEN.

Race 8 - 8:53 PM Exacta / Trifecta /1st Half of Late Double
CLAIMING $4,000
Purse $11,000. (plus Up To 40% Pabf) For Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward Which Have Not Won A Race Since May 4. Three Year Olds, 121 Lbs.; Older, 122 Lbs. Claiming Price $4,000 (Races Where Entered For $3,500 Or Less Not Considered In Eligibility). One Mile

This condition will appear in the PP's when next these horses run as "NW16NX" with the "X" meaning there was a "sub-condition", which is the "races where entered for $3,500 or less not considered."

I have attached the condition for this race as it appears in the CHART. You will see there is a "(C)" after it states "for 3 year olds and up. This is how the condition will appear in the PP's when next these horses run.

Tracks all over the country have been running these types of races most of the year. For an example I have seen conditions where 3 year olds can get in even if the have 6 wins, but older horses are limited to "Never won 3 races" or variations on that theme. Racing secretaries are getting crazy with conditions.

In the PEN condition, it stated clear enough that races where entered for $3,500 do not count in ELIGIBILITY. However, in this race, it doesn't say that. I believe that the races for 20k or less are not being considered in the "WEIGHTS", so there is no weight penalty if the races were 20k or less.

[Bill Lyster]

Thanks, I kinda got lost in my original post. I was trying to determine if any one horse was helped or hurt by the conditions. I did not see any obvious horse either way, was just leery of a couple that had raced above 25K.

Just curious, how would they show that race from FL where it was restricted to "3yo" TRAINERS that had not won at the meet?

Bill

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster

Thanks, I kinda got lost in my original post. I was trying to determine if any one horse was helped or hurt by the conditions. I did not see any obvious horse either way, was just leery of a couple that had raced above 25K.

Just curious, how would they show that race from FL where it was restricted to "3yo" TRAINERS that had not won at the meet?

Bill

Bill..we wont know for sure till the horses are entered again and then look at the PP's

FTL gave us this...This condition will appear in the PP's when next these horses run as "NW16NX" with the "X" meaning there was a "sub-condition"