Stretchout Logic - Pace and Cap

lsosa54 · 02-12-2012, 10:09 PM

Hi folks. This is a race I played using my own methods. At the time I thought the sprinter had a large pace advantage but my only concern was his F3. I also thought he also wasn't going to have to use all that early and if he took to the route, might have some energy for the stretch run.

The original screen I think clearly shows the advantage early but the adjusted screen slows him down by more than 10 lengths if I'm reading it right. Off the top of my head, I would venture to say that SA is a faster track than DMR, so I'm a bit confused. Looking at adjusted fractions, why is this horse so "slowed down" and the routers' tandem race actually "sped up". It would be tough to consider this horse off the adjusted screen.

I have all default settings except I'm using Val 4 Emulation. Any thoughts?

Capcondo · 02-14-2012, 07:36 PM

I don't know how the the adjusted speed rating is calculated but I think the daily track variant has something to do with it. In the case of this horse, the SR is a 91 and the track variant is 1. If an average variant is say 17 and the SR is adjusted at one-half the difference between 17 and 1, the adjustment would be 8 which would be subtracted from the SR of 91 (because the track was faster than normal) leaving an 83. There also may be a sprint to route adjustment here. 81 seems reasonable to me.

Ted could give you a better answer on this one but you get the idea.

Tim

lsosa54 · 02-14-2012, 07:56 PM

Thanks Tim. The daily variant for the routers was similar.

I can see their times made a bit faster as HOL is probably a bit slower than Santa Anita.

For the Sprinter, my sense is that DMR is slower than Santa Anita. I can see some type of sprint to route adjutment, but since the DTV's are the same, that is a huge ITV and sprint to route adjustment.

Even though the sprinter's 3F was not good, his pace calls were substantially faster than the routers. Since I feel the track to track should have sped him up a bit more pacewise, I can't understand the adjustment.

My off the cuff sprint to route is to add a couple of ticks at the 1st & 2nd calls and stretch out the final time 6.2 secs per 1/2 furlong. I'm really not interested in the sprinter's final time but where he will be early in the race and what he might have in reserve if he doesn't have to run as fast. I could see something like 45.6 110, maybe even faster if SA is faster than DMR.

Thanks for responding.

For The Lead · 02-17-2012, 01:40 AM

The average or "base line" daily track variant from the Racing form is "17".

The "base line" for Trackmaster is "0".

Trackmaster's daily track variant of "1" means the track was "1" tick slow.

I'm not sure about this, but I think RDSS is set to adjust by 50% of the difference or 50% of "1".

I also think that adjustment can be changed by the user.

lsosa54 · 02-20-2012, 10:27 AM

FTL: Thanks for the post. Had not explored the variant yet but yes there are 3 options: 0, 50, or 100 as a DTV % adjustment.

So to confirm, what you're saying is that the DRF avg DTV of 17 (all distances, all tracks, nationally according to Doc) that us old Sartinites used to adjust from in a couple of different ways for TM would be 0?

In any case, the tandem route race dtv was not much different. Logically to me, with the dtv's similar and the DMR track speed slower than SA intuitively, the slowdown of the sprinter doesn't make sense, even adding a couple of ticks to the pace call times to adjust spr to rte..

For The Lead · 02-20-2012, 02:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lsosa54

So to confirm, what you're saying is that the DRF avg DTV of 17 (all distances, all tracks, nationally according to Doc) that us old Sartinites used to adjust from in a couple of different ways for TM would be 0?

Correct.

lsosa54 · 02-23-2012, 12:06 PM

Hi Ted - no problem. I'm sure you were trying to get that beta release done and I'm no stranger to having no spare time.

Thanks for the reminder that we are adjusting to Sartin Downs - that's where I went wrong in trying to figure out what was going on. Glad you agree that the penalty is huge on the sprinter and doesn't reflect the reality of a stretch out, given that both HOL and DMR are poly and the DTV's were basically the same for the sprinter and routers. Wouldn't think the speeds of the DMR and HOL surfaces would be extremely different but I could be wrong.

Regarding the modes, I've never used Speculator and lightly used Validator, but am I right to say the difference is how they treat the value of a beaten length, Validator trying to get horses closer together for BL/BL purposes?

Thanks.

Lou

02-12-2012, 10:09 PM	#1
lsosa54 Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: NYC and San Diego Posts: 627	Stretchout Logic Hi folks. This is a race I played using my own methods. At the time I thought the sprinter had a large pace advantage but my only concern was his F3. I also thought he also wasn't going to have to use all that early and if he took to the route, might have some energy for the stretch run. The original screen I think clearly shows the advantage early but the adjusted screen slows him down by more than 10 lengths if I'm reading it right. Off the top of my head, I would venture to say that SA is a faster track than DMR, so I'm a bit confused. Looking at adjusted fractions, why is this horse so "slowed down" and the routers' tandem race actually "sped up". It would be tough to consider this horse off the adjusted screen. I have all default settings except I'm using Val 4 Emulation. Any thoughts? Attached Images

02-17-2012, 01:40 AM	#4
For The Lead Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 1,292	The average or "base line" daily track variant from the Racing form is "17". The "base line" for Trackmaster is "0". Trackmaster's daily track variant of "1" means the track was "1" tick slow. I'm not sure about this, but I think RDSS is set to adjust by 50% of the difference or 50% of "1". I also think that adjustment can be changed by the user. __________________ "It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own

02-14-2012, 07:36 PM	#2
Capcondo Grade 1 Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Tempe, Arizona Posts: 600	I don't know how the the adjusted speed rating is calculated but I think the daily track variant has something to do with it. In the case of this horse, the SR is a 91 and the track variant is 1. If an average variant is say 17 and the SR is adjusted at one-half the difference between 17 and 1, the adjustment would be 8 which would be subtracted from the SR of 91 (because the track was faster than normal) leaving an 83. There also may be a sprint to route adjustment here. 81 seems reasonable to me. Ted could give you a better answer on this one but you get the idea. Tim

02-14-2012, 07:56 PM	#3
lsosa54 Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: NYC and San Diego Posts: 627	Thanks Tim. The daily variant for the routers was similar. I can see their times made a bit faster as HOL is probably a bit slower than Santa Anita. For the Sprinter, my sense is that DMR is slower than Santa Anita. I can see some type of sprint to route adjutment, but since the DTV's are the same, that is a huge ITV and sprint to route adjustment. Even though the sprinter's 3F was not good, his pace calls were substantially faster than the routers. Since I feel the track to track should have sped him up a bit more pacewise, I can't understand the adjustment. My off the cuff sprint to route is to add a couple of ticks at the 1st & 2nd calls and stretch out the final time 6.2 secs per 1/2 furlong. I'm really not interested in the sprinter's final time but where he will be early in the race and what he might have in reserve if he doesn't have to run as fast. I could see something like 45.6 110, maybe even faster if SA is faster than DMR. Thanks for responding.

02-20-2012, 10:27 AM	#5
lsosa54 Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: NYC and San Diego Posts: 627	FTL: Thanks for the post. Had not explored the variant yet but yes there are 3 options: 0, 50, or 100 as a DTV % adjustment. So to confirm, what you're saying is that the DRF avg DTV of 17 (all distances, all tracks, nationally according to Doc) that us old Sartinites used to adjust from in a couple of different ways for TM would be 0? In any case, the tandem route race dtv was not much different. Logically to me, with the dtv's similar and the DMR track speed slower than SA intuitively, the slowdown of the sprinter doesn't make sense, even adding a couple of ticks to the pace call times to adjust spr to rte..

02-23-2012, 12:06 PM	#7
lsosa54 Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: NYC and San Diego Posts: 627	Hi Ted - no problem. I'm sure you were trying to get that beta release done and I'm no stranger to having no spare time. Thanks for the reminder that we are adjusting to Sartin Downs - that's where I went wrong in trying to figure out what was going on. Glad you agree that the penalty is huge on the sprinter and doesn't reflect the reality of a stretch out, given that both HOL and DMR are poly and the DTV's were basically the same for the sprinter and routers. Wouldn't think the speeds of the DMR and HOL surfaces would be extremely different but I could be wrong. Regarding the modes, I've never used Speculator and lightly used Validator, but am I right to say the difference is how they treat the value of a beaten length, Validator trying to get horses closer together for BL/BL purposes? Thanks. Lou