Kentucky Derby

[Mrbill]

I'll be the first here......I'm liking El Padrino. If you look at his past performances, he tied a track record at GP, broke a track record at FG, then bounced in the Florida derby. I'm hoping he bounces back in the derby...I'll be paying him to win and an exacta boxes with him and Bodemeister, Daddy Nose Best, and Went the Day Well.

I'm throwing out Union Rags....his figures haven't improved from last year...could be a mistake, but you have to take a stand somewhere.

I love derby day, huge pools and the chance for some major scores.

Good luck to all and I'm hoping everyone makes some kind of score!

Mr Bill

[pktruckdriver]

I will make 6 horses my picks if the track becomes muddy

3 / 4 / 6 / 11 / 15 / 16


Without mud, then I am more confused, but may look to the following...

Alpha
Gemologist
El Padrino
Bodemiester
Dullahan
Take Charge Indy
I'll have another
Went the day well

there you have it, as you can see I have no Idea who will win this race

Dullahan /Bodemiester would be my keys

[pktruckdriver]

Originally Posted by pktruckdriver

I will make 6 horses my picks if the track becomes muddy

3 / 4 / 6 / 11 / 15 / 16


Without mud, then I am more confused, but may look to the following...

Alpha
Gemologist
El Padrino
Bodemiester
Dullahan
Take Charge Indy
I'll have another
Went the day well

there you have it, as you can see I have no Idea who will win this race

Dullahan /Bodemiester would be my keys

Well it seems the top 4 were in my group, but without proper wager structering I was unable to become a winner of the big payout.

If say , I would do the following bets with with my keys in 1st and 2nd , and this is big time if after the fact, because I did not do this, and with others and a nice Bank roll to work with, then maybe it might have happened. The following is for a 1.00 dollar wager. As you see above my keys were the 5 and 6 horse's, Bodemiester and Dullahan

$1 Trifecta: 1,2 / 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 / 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8
Bets: 84 Total: $84

$1 Trifecta: 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 / 1,2 / 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8
Bets: 84 Total: $84

Total wager 168.00 won 1532.80 nice hit

To wager the super in the 1 st and 2nd spot , more pricey for sure...

$1 Superfecta: 1,2 / 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 / 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 / 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8
Bets: 420 Total: $420

$1 Superfecta: 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 / 1,2 / 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 / 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8
Bets: 420 Total: $420

Cost for this 840.00 , too much for me to even think about making this wager

But if done the payout was 48,046.40 a very nice hit, but who knew, oh well


This is the dream of the Derby , the payouts, yet this year I again did not hit the big one, actually only played a 42.00 super with and well we know the outcome.

$1 Superfecta: 1,2 / 1,2,3 / 2,3,4,5,6 / 2,3,4,5,6
Bets: 42 Total: $42

I see PeteC did a nice job picking the winner in the Match-up, Kudos to him

patrick

[Dap Daddi]

I am going to take a chance with a big win bet on Alpha. He reminds me of Manarchos who ran 2nd in the Wood and won the Kentucky Derby at a healthy price. His numbers per RDSS is in the top 3 of contenders.

[Ted Craven]

Given the strong collection of Early horses here (Hansen, Trinniberg, Bodemeister, Gemologist), yet no dominance by any of them, I'd have to make this a race favouring Other Than Earlies, though I would not put it past the maturing Bode or the superconsistent Gemologist (though I'd like to see higher class race wins) to finish somewhere in my superfecta.

So, my top Other Than Early, Late energy, VDC horses are:

Alpha
Dullahan
Union Rags

in likely descending order of post-time odds.



I thought the race was going to be inscrutable (as I usually do going into it ) but it seemed to shake out like it always does using a few reliable guidelines:

1. Use Win or very close 2nd finish in G1 or G2 races, this year, the longer the better
2. Emphacize Late energy (L/ep, LPR, TS+F3) but not at the expense of Total Energy
3. Identify if the Earlies with any of the above are too disadvantaged by a surplus of other early competitors.

4. Get a price.

Alpha and Dullahan may offer all of the above plus a good price.

Good luck to all!

Ted

[mikesal57]

6-11-14 for me

good luck
all

mike

[Mr.Pagine]

I really think Union Rags has a monster race today - however, I will take 4, 6, 8, 10, 11, 15, 19.

Happy Punting

JD

[raceman5]

4-6-9-14

Good Luck All

[clore1030]

Originally Posted by Mr.Pagine

I really think Union Rags has a monster race today - however, I will take 4, 6, 8, 10, 11, 15, 19.

Happy Punting

JD

For some reason, I've always preferred to handicap the Derby with the DRF past performances. "Union Rags" just keeps jumping off the page to me.

I'll probably put a wager on him and also "Went The Day Well" as a live longshot.

[Neil S.]

Dullahan
Hansen
Creative Cause