selecting pace lines

[Aldens_dad]

I have been usind RDSS with moderate success well sometimes. I have been spending alot of time in the library lately just trying to educate myself and better understand the software and what its telling me. I just finished reading "The Pace Manual" and I figured out that I cannot pick or have trouble selecting pace lines in past performances I mean if you can't pick the same, consistent pace line how will you ever get to the next level. So I found a race that had me scratching my head whether to use this line or that one. Here are my rules that I use when selecting a pace line.

1. try to select same distance and surface
2. last line is my first choice unless a bad trip or wrong conditions (rule 1)
3. don't select last race if its the highest adj. SR and TE
4. don't select maiden wins unless only + race
5. only select races were horse was not beat more then 7.5 lengths
6. try not to go past 100 days

These are my guidelines that I have written down when doing a race but there always seems to be an expection to the rule.

Any who this is getting a bit long winded but I really could use some guidance here.

I chose this race because it only had 6 horse and a couple were good scenarios that seem to fall in the exception rules.



Horse 1 I chose the 2nd line since the first line is a route and today is a sprint and it was sloppy conditions. The horse has been off for 150 days so going to the 2nd line seems fair but its a maiden win race and boasts the highest adj SR and TE.

Should I use the first line or go back to the 5th line where its a sprint and finished 3rd?

[Aldens_dad]

I chose the last line here because its the same distance and surface, finished within 7.5 lengths and seemed like the horses better than avg adj SR and TE.

I believe this line is a true representation of this horse.

[Aldens_dad]

I chose the last line here because the only other line is the maiden win and the SR and TE seem to be a little on the generous side.

Does it seem like some of the adj SR and TE are a bit inflated at times?

I try not to use the horses best line meaning the dream trip scenario that only comes out every now and then.

[Aldens_dad]

I chose the 2nd line here because the first line was the best the horse ever ran even though it has only ran twice. It just seemed a bit inflated in SR and TE and felt like the 2nd line even though its a maiden win was a better choice for this horse.

Does that make sense?

[Aldens_dad]

Used last line here..seemed the logical choice.

[Aldens_dad]

used 2nd line here because first line seemed inflated and did not want to go back over 100 days to select the same distance. the last 4 races have all been routes so was handcuffed to select a route for a sprint

Should I of went with the first line even though it was the best line for this horse?

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Aldens_dad

I have been usind RDSS with moderate success well sometimes. I have been spending alot of time in the library lately just trying to educate myself and better understand the software and what its telling me. I just finished reading "The Pace Manual" and I figured out that I cannot pick or have trouble selecting pace lines in past performances I mean if you can't pick the same, consistent pace line how will you ever get to the next level. So I found a race that had me scratching my head whether to use this line or that one. Here are my rules that I use when selecting a pace line.




1. try to select same distance and surface
2. last line is my first choice unless a bad trip or wrong conditions (rule 1)
3. don't select last race if its the highest adj. SR and TE
4. don't select maiden wins unless only + race
5. only select races were horse was not beat more then 7.5 lengths
6. try not to go past 100 days

These are my guidelines that I have written down when doing a race but there always seems to be an expection to the rule.

Any who this is getting a bit long winded but I really could use some guidance here.

I chose this race because it only had 6 horse and a couple were good scenarios that seem to fall in the exception rules.



Horse 1 I chose the 2nd line since the first line is a route and today is a sprint and it was sloppy conditions. The horse has been off for 150 days so going to the 2nd line seems fair but its a maiden win race and boasts the highest adj SR and TE.

Should I use the first line or go back to the 5th line where its a sprint and finished 3rd?

First, let me go over your list.

1 - replace "try to" with "ALWAYS"
2 - Replace with "the last line IS THE LINE, unless there is a "valid reason" to go back one line". The Paceline Manual gives many "valid" reasons. DO NOT invent reasons.
3 - Scrap this line.
4 - OK to use maiden line if today's race is for non winners of two lifetime
5 - Scrap this line. Many times a horse has the lead at the first two calls (a very positive sign) and finishes the race out of the money and beaten more than 7.5 lengths.
6 - replace with DO NOT GO PAST 90 DAYS, for either days since last race or days since the paceline used.

In looking at the horses you posted, here are the horses and lines I would use.

#1 - NO LINE. Hasn't run in 147 days.
#2 - NO LINE. Horse only has 2 races in the last 90 days. Neither is a "good" race. "GOOD" means either a "+" race or a "(+)" race.
#3 - LAST LINE. There is nothing wrong with the line. Use it.
#4 - LAST LINE. There is nothing wrong with the line. Use it. DO NOT go back to a maiden line. This race IS NOT for non winners of 2 races lifetime.
#5 - LAST LINE. There is nothing wrong with the line. Use it.
#6 - NO LINE. Last 4 lines are all routes. Today is a sprint. Horse does not show a "good" sprint race in the entirety of its' PP's.
Contenders are 3,4,5.


Picking contenders and pacelines is not easy, but it certainly isn't as difficult as some may make it.
You posted this in the "teaching" area.
HAVE YOU READ THE OTHER THREADS HERE?
Here is a thread on "picking contenders and pacelines". http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8784
There are many, many examples that will help you.
In fact, you should read all the treads in the "teaching" area. I think you will find all of them helpful.

[exactor]

I think mentions the Silva course in some followup. Bradshaw mixing pacelines and Pizzola's "soft focus", versus Ainslie, Quinn, Beyer and Brohammer stopping betting at some point tells at least me something.

[Lt1]

I have a question about pl selection. I see where FTL refers to the PL manual which does state use last line except for valid reason to go back. When I joined the Methodolgy in 1990 we were told by the Doc to use the best of the last 3 at a comparable dist and surface [within 1 furlong] and not to use a line where horse was beaten by more than 7.5 lenghts. I've been doing this with good success for 23 yrs. I will agree that most times the line I use is in the top 3 last lines. So my question is when did it revert back to the last line?. Thank you.

Tim G

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Lt1

I have a question about pl selection. I see where FTL refers to the PL manual which does state use last line except for valid reason to go back. When I joined the Methodolgy in 1990 we were told by the Doc to use the best of the last 3 at a comparable dist and surface [within 1 furlong] and not to use a line where horse was beaten by more than 7.5 lenghts. I've been doing this with good success for 23 yrs. I will agree that most times the line I use is in the top 3 last lines. So my question is when did it revert back to the last line?. Thank you.

Tim G

I will take responsibility for the recent talk about using the last paceline unless there is a “valid” reason to go back one line, among other things.

Since there is already a thread in the teaching area that disusses picking contenders and pacelines and using RDSS software, my suggestion to is read through that thread from start to finish. There are many, many examples of races. You can find the thread here. http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8784

In fact, all the threads in the teaching area use original methodology concepts and RDSS. I think all of them would be a good read for everyone. There is a lot in there, but it is all good information.