Contender Selection - One Way Pt 1 of 3

[Because I Can Jim]

Hey Everyone,

I have created three videos in response to a contender selection question by Ronestes from another thread. You can view that thread here:
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9305
I suggest you read it before watching the videos.

I answered the question in three parts.

Be forewarned - each video is about 14 minutes long.

Since it is my first posting of videos bear with me as I make improvements as I go along gaining more experience doing this.

Briefly, here are the steps I go thru in my process:

• paceline selection strategy
• look at the pps of the horses to gather info
• select running styles
• find a fulcrum pace and fulcrum horse
• eliminate horses that do not meet the fulcrum pace and select pacelines
• on the Segments tab, use Total Energy, VDC and Running Styles to further eliminate horses
• having whittled down to the contenders, analyze and make wagering decisions

Ted suggested that I make sort of a preamble video to explain some thing. I will do that in another thread. However, I felt that I should answer Ron's question instead of having him wait too long.


So be patient with the give and take.


Also, post thoughts, comments, suggestions, etc.... They are most welcome.


So, here we go.

[Because I Can Jim]

Here is part 2 of the videos.

[Because I Can Jim]

Here is part 3 of the videos.

I hope you have gotten something out of them.

Feel free to post comments, questions, suggestions, or whatever to the forum.

[DontSayDont]

I don't use RDSS but still found your video's entertaining and informative. You did not talk to fast for me, so that would not be a problem for you in future video's (at least for me).

I do have one question for you: in the first video, the first item you looked at was "days since last race" but you never used that information at any time during your contender selection or paceline selection. Do you disregard dslr in your process or just did not for the purpose of the video's?

[Latekick]

Great videos Jim. They were very well made and very informative.
I just typed a really long paragraph, but when I pressed submit an error occurred and it was all erased..... bummer.
So basically what I had typed was, im very interested to see how you go about your betting descion process, how you get your top 2 from those 5 contenders you have. Great job on the videos Jim. Im really interested too see what your top two selection process is like. Ive been having some good success but theres always room to improve.
Thanks for the videos, great job!

[Because I Can Jim]

Thanks Latekick!

Obviously, the selection process kind of picks up right where I left off.

It is a lot less mechanical because it is about making "judgements" about the running of the race.

It is also about evolving as an "equine investor"! LOL What I am doing today, I know I may not be doing tomorrow.

But, that is the point of me making some videos and posting here. It is about laying myself "bare" for better or for worse so that others can see the evolution and trials and tribulations "one person" goes thru to make profits.

So yes, you will see how I go about my betting decision process.

As another idea, everyone will also get to see explanations of concepts and their applications.

Also, my coach and I are in the process of putting together a series of videos relating to what he calls "Big Questions".

And I plan to record my thoughts about races "before" they are run so they can be discussed without the possibility of bias since I won't know the results.

I have quite a few ideas and that puts a lot on my plate.

We'll see what comes of them.
Have patience and stay tuned.

P.S. For anyone else reading this, I want input and feedback. I appreciate your "bummer" moment Latekick (I'm sorry I don't know your first name). Input from the forum will also help shape content. I am not in this for the short run. I am in this for the long run which will only be born out as to what I am writing as the days go by.

I also hope everyone also understands that I work full-time, have a family and wager, but, I am making a commitment here. Enough said for now. The rest will be said in a preamble video.

[Because I Can Jim]

I look at the days since last race (dslr), but, just keep it in the back of my mind. This is "corollary" information for me. Think about how the Doc spoke about using corollaries for BLBL.

I am up in the air when it comes to dslr. For The Lead (FLT) tosses horses over 90 days. I don't. I am not saying he is wrong and I am right. It is just how each individual looks at a race for themselves.

But, I do recognize that that is an extended period of time for a layoff. When the workouts are published after clicking on the Workouts tab, I look to see if there are published workouts over an regular interval of time at progressively longer distances to give me a bit of confidence that the horse is "in condition" to run. I don't pay attention to the times. I don't just blindly toss the horse.

One of the tinkgs about dslr that bothers me is that even though workouts are published, you don't know for sure how the horse is truly being worked out. Workouts can be happening at a private track that go unrecorded. Do, when I look at the workouts and I see only one workout on a layoff of over 90 days, I don;t have confidence in the horses condition. Think about it. If you are a runner or swimmer and you take an extended layoff, your physiolology has changed. You don;t have as much wind. If you do workout, you are stiff. It takes a few workouts to start feeling "right" again (in condition). That is why I wold have a tendency to toss a horse with one workout as opposed to keeping a horse with several workouts. It is about condition. But, unless it is published, I can't really be sure.

I will keep the horse and make further judgements based upon the way the horses matchup in the race. I will use other tools to get a better handle on the horse and decide to keep or eliminate.

When I look at the past performances of the horse I will note its best race but will not use it when comparing to the fulcrum horse or matching up against another horse. I will use its running style to better understand its position in the running of the race. I don't use it because I feel the percentages are low that a horse (or you or I) runs its best race after a layoff unless some training has been done.

I will look to see what pacelines look like before and after a layoff and try to "judge" what line might be "comparable" to use for comparions.

So I haven't tossed the horse (unless it is obvious that the horse just cannot compete against the fulcrum or projected pace), but, I keep it in the back of mind mind that this is an questionable/unknown factor. Too many questions in a race and all of this becomes moot as I will pass the race.

As for the purpose of the video, It was intended only to show a process - one that I even deviate from at times. This was just one of the "specifics" that I did not get into. I also glossed over using the purse value for class. My thoughts about it are similiar to dslr. I am by no means anywhere on the same planet as FTL about class. But, I do recognize that a horse moving up in class is running against better horses and dropping down is facing lesser horses. It is also something I just keep in the back of my mind.

All of these things fuel the "intuition" we have. If handicapping was about numbers, everyone would be doing the same exact thing, getting the same exact numbers and there would be no mutuals because we would all be on the same exact horses.

Instead, there is the "art" side of handicapping which resides in the area of intuition. You gather up the information (some of it which is more valuable than others) and you apply it to the race at hand.

Hope that helps.

[Because I Can Jim]

Hey Bill,

Thanks.

I use RDSS2 in the Default mode.

We are all different and that is what brings flavor to the game. There is no right or wrong. There is only what works for each of us.

I know what you mean about the race. I just picked it at random, seriously. I too would have passed the race - too manyh questions. However, it was only intended to show a process.

But, your comment does brnig up an interesting point and that is - when to pass a race! Could be another subject for another video.

As far as VDC and beaten over 7 lengths, if I am reading your mind (and I don't like reading minds! LOL) I think I understand you and as I mul it over writing these words, maybe that might be a part of the video I make for Latekick for the decision making process or possibly part of a Concepts video.

Good stuff to think about. Let me know if you think of anything else.

[Because I Can Jim]

Hi Terry,

Thanks for the post!

The learned the concept of the fulcrum pace and fulcrum horse from the chapter in the first edition of the book "Pace Makes The Race" by Michael Pizzolla and also from his other book "Handicapping Magic."

Basically, the idea is to project a pace of race. When you are using a paceline that had the horse first at the 2C, that POR time is the same as the POH which is easy enough. When you are using a line for the fulcrum that does not have the horse on the lead, then you are "adjusting" the fulcrum time by taking the POR time and adding in the beaten lengths of the horse.

So, as an example, if we are using a line that has a 46.1 POR and the horse is 1 beaten length off the pace, you are adjusting the POR to account for the beaten lengths. The POR times are in 10ths of a second. The beaten lengths are in lengths.

Beaten lengths have been equated to 1/5th of a second. (As a quick aside, how long is a beaten length? Hard to tell. Different horses are different lengths and when they are moving/running it is even more difficult to tell how much a beaten length equates to. Howard Sartin settled on one beaten length as 1/5th of a second which is just as good as any other time measurement because it is all relative.)

So, in our example, one beaten length is 1/5th of a second. However, the POR times are in 10ths of a second. So you have to double it. (1/5th = 0.2 tenths) We add the 46.1 and 0.2 to get 46.3 for our fulcrum time. (If the beaten lengths were 3, then I would add 0.6 to the 46.1 and get 46.7.)

Remember, I am using the fulcrum to setup a way of thinking about the race. If a horse cannot compete at that time (we know the horse we have taken it from can) out it goes as a non-contender.

Also, when selecting a paceline for the fulcrum horse, you are not "locked into" the fulcrum paceline. These are two separate concepts although intimately related and most of the time I will use the fulcrum line as the paceline for the fulcrum horse. But, that does not mean that I would not go past that last line just like I would when selecting a paceline for any other horse.

Hope that helps you.

Also Terry, I saw your question about running styles in the thread from Bill. He provided you with the Running Styles section from Jim Bradshaw's 5 step process.

I was thninking about making a video or two about running styles and maybee even doing it as an example when I handicap a race. I have been very busy lately and have it sitting in the back of my mind. If you have any other questions about it that you might want me to address, I will see what I can come up with. Just post them as a quick reply to this thread.

Best of luck,

Jim

[Because I Can Jim]

Hi trotman, (I am sorry I don't know your name. I am actually creating a list for myself to know who everyone is. Your name is very important.)

Your kind words are much appreciated.

It is dfficult to think about the methodology because it is so diverse.

I just hope that I am getting it right!!!! LOL

Jim