Finding Longshots - Pace and Cap

GeezerHead · 06-04-2020, 09:39 AM

The absolute first thing to do to find LONGSHOTS.

DELETE the Favorite from your Analysis.

Yes, this is something Doc Sartin and I discussed and agreed upon.

If you think the favorite is that strong... don't Win bet in that race. However, there is plenty of money to be made betting against strong favorites.

GeezerHead · 06-04-2020, 09:49 AM

Identifying Races where LONGSHOTS are likely:

+ Low class races

+ Races with 9 or more runners

+ Records of races which produce Longshots

If you don't keep records... checkout BRIS (Twinspires.com)
'RACE TYPE STATS AT [track ID] FOR UP TO THE LAST 3 YEARS'.
Available for free, on computer and mobile app with an account.

GeezerHead · 06-04-2020, 09:58 AM

Try this LONGSHOT paceline selection method...

Best race on Distance and Surface within 400 DAYS.

On occasion, I have gone back 450 days or more, but never 2 years.

This method works great for me at lower class tracks and low class races everywhere.

Beware of extreme Speed Ratings that are over 5 ticks faster than all others in the Past Performances.

note: Similar to the BRIS Back Speed Rating.

GeezerHead · 06-04-2020, 10:06 AM

NW2 Lifetime: paceline selection idea...

Use the line of the MAIDEN WIN!?

Embrace the KISS method.

GeezerHead · 06-05-2020, 03:35 PM

+ TURF races

+ races at 5 and 5.5 furlongs

+ race types at Oaklawn Park that have previously produced longshots

06-04-2020, 09:39 AM	#1
GeezerHead Sartinista Join Date: Mar 2014 Location: Left Coast Posts: 8	Finding Longshots The absolute first thing to do to find LONGSHOTS. DELETE the Favorite from your Analysis. Yes, this is something Doc Sartin and I discussed and agreed upon. If you think the favorite is that strong... don't Win bet in that race. However, there is plenty of money to be made betting against strong favorites. __________________ Doc Sartin told me I could win if I would just stop thinking so much.

06-04-2020, 09:49 AM	#2
GeezerHead Sartinista Join Date: Mar 2014 Location: Left Coast Posts: 8	Identifying Races where LONGSHOTS are likely: + Low class races + Races with 9 or more runners + Records of races which produce Longshots If you don't keep records... checkout BRIS (Twinspires.com) 'RACE TYPE STATS AT [track ID] FOR UP TO THE LAST 3 YEARS'. Available for free, on computer and mobile app with an account. __________________ Doc Sartin told me I could win if I would just stop thinking so much.

06-04-2020, 09:58 AM	#3
GeezerHead Sartinista Join Date: Mar 2014 Location: Left Coast Posts: 8	Try this LONGSHOT paceline selection method... Best race on Distance and Surface within 400 DAYS. On occasion, I have gone back 450 days or more, but never 2 years. This method works great for me at lower class tracks and low class races everywhere. Beware of extreme Speed Ratings that are over 5 ticks faster than all others in the Past Performances. note: Similar to the BRIS Back Speed Rating. Last edited by GeezerHead; 06-04-2020 at 10:04 AM.

06-04-2020, 10:06 AM	#4
GeezerHead Sartinista Join Date: Mar 2014 Location: Left Coast Posts: 8	NW2 Lifetime: paceline selection idea... Use the line of the MAIDEN WIN!? Embrace the KISS method. __________________ Doc Sartin told me I could win if I would just stop thinking so much.

06-05-2020, 03:35 PM	#5
GeezerHead Sartinista Join Date: Mar 2014 Location: Left Coast Posts: 8	More Longshot races to look for... + TURF races + races at 5 and 5.5 furlongs + race types at Oaklawn Park that have previously produced longshots __________________ Doc Sartin told me I could win if I would just stop thinking so much.

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