nice basic wagercapping example

[admin]

Here is the final BLBL

Basic wagercapping says throw out the low price favorite (THE 4 )
then bet the low odds horse that will pay over $7.00
that would be the 9
the second win bet would either be the 10 or now the 2
who went off at 15/1 after scratching the 4 it would move into the top 3
I bet the 9 and 10
the 9 won the 2 placed and the 10 showed

[shoeless]

Bill,Doc said in his earlier stuff that wagercapping was not the way to go.If Im not mistaken he used to poke fun at Dick Mitchell for doing so.Jeff

[Turbulator]

Originally Posted by admin

Here is the final BLBL

Basic wagercapping says throw out the low price favorite (THE 4 )
then bet the low odds horse that will pay over $7.00
that would be the 9
the second win bet would either be the 10 or now the 2
who went off at 15/1 after scratching the 4 it would move into the top 3
I bet the 9 and 10
the 9 won the 2 placed and the 10 showed

Bill, if you're wagercapping, after you throw out the 4 horse the 9 becomes your first bet. That leaves you with a decision to make between betting the 10 and the 2.

Between those two horses do you bet the one with the highest odds or the one with the highest rank (tier?)? Is it a judgment call?

Thanks

[Turbulator]

Originally Posted by shoeless

Bill,Doc said in his earlier stuff that wagercapping was not the way to go.If Im not mistaken he used to poke fun at Dick Mitchell for doing so.Jeff

You're correct, but it appears he changed his mind.

If anyone wants to go to the trouble of rereading Pace Makes the Race you'll be astounded (at least I was) at some of the prices those guys got on some very logical horses back then.

If those same races were run today you wouldn't get anywhere near those same prices, which is probably the reason that somewhere along the way Doc changed his mind about wagercapping.

[shoeless]

There is really no way to assume that those prices would not have been the same.

[admin]

Originally Posted by shoeless

Bill,Doc said in his earlier stuff that wagercapping was not the way to go.If Im not mistaken he used to poke fun at Dick Mitchell for doing so.Jeff

What Doc was poking fun at was not this
He was referring to people who said the 9 should pay $12.00
and that they would not bet it at $10.00
I hope to be able to talk to Doc in the next few days
as a nice present to myself. I need to askl him some things
I feel that this form of wagercapping =- hideing and betting the low and the high odds is the way to go I'm skimming around some follow ups I will have a better picture for you
Wishing you the best

Bill

[admin]

Originally Posted by Turbulator

Bill, if you're wagercapping, after you throw out the 4 horse the 9 becomes your first bet. That leaves you with a decision to make between betting the 10 and the 2.

Between those two horses do you bet the one with the highest odds or the one with the highest rank (tier?)? Is it a judgment call?

Thanks

hello Steve

The nine is the first bet

I'm trying to see what the going off odds were for the ten
were
I know the 2 was about 15/1 yes the 2 horse should be bet if you hide
the 4 1 more thing is the field size. I now its in the follow ups
but in a short field if you throw out the favorite a longer price horse has to have some vital readout support

This needs to be adressed as I feel it is now and will be a very
solid tool its not the METHODOLGY its a tool for some of us
and I hope people will consider it

[Turbulator]

Originally Posted by shoeless

There is really no way to assume that those prices would not have been the same.

Doc himself would disagree with you. Perhaps someone can post a quote from one of the followups where he said as much.

[shoeless]

It doesnt matter who agrees or not there is no way to tell.A Rod hit 54 homers this year would he have done the same thing in the 1930's.

[Turbulator]

Originally Posted by shoeless

It doesnt matter who agrees or not there is no way to tell.A Rod hit 54 homers this year would he have done the same thing in the 1930's.

Bad analogy. Comparing someone who hit 54 home runs to thousands (maybe tens of thousands) of pace handicappers coming on the scene in the last 25 years is a red herring.

...My last post on the subject...