Del Mar 8/11 New Pace

[gfnut]

[mikesal57]

Hi Gfnut...

I mentioned this to Ted and will point it out to New Pace Users.....
I've noticed in my studies that some horses with a point or two difference in speed ratings can be left out of being contenders...
Take the 6Th and & 7TH races....
The 5 in the 6TH race missed being a contender by 2 points and won
The 4 in the 7TH race missed by 2 pts and won..

Just a heads up

mike

[clore1030]

Just for clarification, if the 1 or 2-points short horses can be left out of consideration, why are you pointing out horses who were left out and won?

I may be misinterpreting here, that's why I'm asking.

[Bill V.]

I sure am waiting for some more test results. I would be weary of ifs and maybes Mike. Just my opinion. I work for a big successful trucking company. We use 100 percent electronic logs. Every time I have an issue with my daily logs and ask if I can fudge it and move this to that or change that to this I get a stern answer. Log it like it is. Good skill to the testers wishing you. The mind set and skill to win. Bill

[mikesal57]

[QUOTE=clore1030;72789]Just for clarification, if the 1 or 2-points short horses can be left out of consideration, why are you pointing out horses who were left out and won?

Charles a 1 or 2 point short fall should not be an absolute throwout...but more a consideration

[barb craven]

Wouldn't they be better hidden in plain sight, by putting them down in the second row as secondary contenders so you could keep an eye on the readouts as you go through them Mike?

[mikesal57]

Barb, its up to Ted what he wants to do....
I suggested a different color for possible ties..
In Dave's approach, a point difference is considered a tie which he then has some tie breaking rules...
With Ted's RDSS2 , it does look at ties at all...
if horses A has a 91 rating and Horse B has a 90 rating..horse A is always in
I'm just going with my observations on what I've noticed doing random tests

[barb craven]

That's my point Mike. If you break the ties using energy which I do, and one horse falls below 4th position on VDC or BL/BL, by not getting rid of him entirely, but putting him in as secondary contender, you can watch all the readouts on the other screens to see if he's got any colour anywhere, like TPP, or E/EP or any good readout from your model.

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by barb craven

That's my point Mike. If you break the ties using energy which I do, and one horse falls below 4th position on VDC or BL/BL, by not getting rid of him entirely, but putting him in as secondary contender, you can watch all the readouts on the other screens to see if he's got any colour anywhere, like TPP, or E/EP or any good readout from your model.

Barb...that can be an idea
maybe Ted can add some sort of numbers , like vdc or Dave's concept of averaging lines ,to the right side of the New Pace screen..theres plenty of room

mike

[Ted Craven]

Mike,

I think your message editor is dropping a few 'nots' here and there

I think perhaps you meant:

'With Ted's RDSS2 , it does not look at ties at all...'

'I've noticed in my studies that some horses with a point or two difference in speed ratings can not be left out of being contenders...'

And Mum, Mike is talking about the NewPace screen, but there is no such thing (currently) as grouping non-contenders in a different group ('hiding in plain sight') as there is in the Analysis Tabs.

Regarding NewPace in general - my aim is to represent the logic published by Dave Schwartz as faithfully as I can (so people who come for NewPace, get NewPace). I can provide options to tweak it how you like, if your records show it can be an improvement, but the Default settings should be as close to published as possible so folks can compare apples to apples as far as knowing whether the method is valid.

Now, lots of folks are already busy at work combining the NewPace output with standard RDSS output, keeping models, etc and creating something new, or hybrid, for themselves or perhaps to share. People do some weird and wonderful things with the RDSS readouts already (some they'll never tell you about) and it was ever thus, since the beginning of the Sartin Methodology. People tinker - it's what they do. Even past the point where they know they ought to sometimes (i.e. why stop with success when you can improvise unto defeat).

Ties (and Speed Ratings within a point of each other) are a part of the NewPace method, with several defined approaches to separate them. Right now, exact ties are broken (check it out and you'll see this is so). I need to add in more methods to separate close ties (because this is a part of the NewPace method), and so I will.

These rules are necessary only because NewPace (as defined by its creator) operates largely (though not entirely) as a kind of black-box. But of course you can separate ties by whatever method you want, using your own handicapping judgement, or other tried and true RDSS factors, or bet-time odds, etc.

In other words, you can tinker, you can make it your own. Or you can ignore it.

Ted