Tampa Tuesday "Live" - Round 3

[Ted Craven]

Pino, John,

Observation so far shows that TP (and KEE) Polytrack shipper lines seem to compare way too fast. If you slow those 2 TP routes down by 3 seconds or so at the final, the #2 doesn't look quite so fast. Spec users can do this on the Manual edit screen. (Workin' on that in RDSS...) Instead, if you use her BEU route lines, where she at least ran well, her energy is a lot less

Maybe this router will win another sprint race today, but... (though has been in the money 6 times in 10 sprints). Her late energy could get her up for Show again.

Ted

[Ted Craven]

I'm supposed to be working on an important project, but these horses 'keep pulling me back'. (Someone tell me to just stop reading my email...).

For this race, I selected a paceline or lines for every horse. I did NOT use a match up/power line procedure for this particular race. I tried to use the best of last 3 similar, etc.

I included #2 the router, but could not accept the TP lines as they adjust too fast for me. Instead I used an older BEU line where it ran well. I notice it has good late energy and has actually finished 5 times 3rd in sprints. Not for WIN, but the counter-energy horse, along with the #1.

I also included the #5 who ran poorly after its layoff, but if it runs back to previous, can compete, but not for WIN.

I used different pacelines than Richie, using this contender analysis method, but got the same 3 horses for WIN. My final BL/BL screen shot below shows those 3 WIN horses.

No prediction, just analysis today.

[RichieP]

a 1-2-3 finish with the winner being the horse CLOSEST to the lead positionally on the Power Lines. ALSO has 2 calls of extra units of energy due to the "heading " at 1c and 2c. Check it out.


Now you can also place this horse Pace of race faster by looking at his pp's


til next week

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by RichieP

Now you can also place this horse Pace of race faster by looking at his pp's

Richie, I can see how the winner's #5 line places it positionally closer than its chosen power line(on the lead), and I presume you mean this is evidence that of the 3 final contenders, it should prevail.

Did you use the #1 line 6 (over lines 5 or 7 where it was 1st at C1) because line 6 C1 and C2 pace was much faster, and thus this line 6 made it look its fastest? But why not try the line 5 or 7 to put it positionally closer to the lead (i.e. on the lead)?

Trying to understand about the final hair-splitting over contenders by seeing if we can place a horse closer positionally.

Also, the winner line 4 clearly shows it a 'fighter' and I see how it can be credited with 2 units of extra energy for that fight. If it had finished worse in that line 4 as a result of that fight, would you still say it should be credited with extra units of energy?


Ted

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

Richie, I can see how the winner's #5 line places it positionally closer than its chosen power line(on the lead), and I presume you mean this is evidence that of the 3 final contenders, it should prevail.
Ted

YES.

A mental picture "blending" the pacelines. Pace of race line 3( don't wanna use it for power line cause he was chasing speed) and 5 "blended" with 'FIGHTING" and finish of line 4

This race HAS run before (btw so did last week's. just the wrong horse(for me) won).

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

Did you use the #1 line 6 (over lines 5 or 7 where it was 1st at C1) because line 6 C1 and C2 pace was much faster, and thus this line 6 made it look its fastest? But why not try the line 5 or 7 to put it positionally closer to the lead (i.e. on the lead)?
Ted

LIne 7 is a "stop on it's own line. I would not consider that for a Powerline but WOULD call on it to seperate final 1 or 2 contenders Ted if pace of race SPEED was needed.

Again a lot of this is subjective and reflects my interpretations of how I am taught to "see" things using BOTH power lines and then "other" lines to support wager decisions.
Richie

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

Also, the winner line 4 clearly shows it a 'fighter' and I see how it can be credited with 2 units of extra energy for that fight. If it had finished worse in that line 4 as a result of that fight, would you still say it should be credited with extra units of energy?
Ted

absolutely YES and giving 2 units is CONSERVATIVE estimate.
Richie

[admin]

Sorry I'm late I will work the race even though I know the results
Its alright since I will show the race the way I would have done it
I set the pace and did my APV-CR ratings
I will pick lines based on my pace and the best of the last 3
speed ratings

APV CR

1). 171.2% 1.45
2). 133.5 % 1.18
3). 177.8% 1.54
4). 028.4% 0.30
5). 124.9% 1.41
6). 187.3% 1.82
8).150.6% 1.33

Everybody looks cool except # 4 and maybe # 2

Here are my screen shots first horse 1
I will use line 1 (not marked Opps)

[admin]

All Rt lines showing
If you notice # 2 has no color in the fractions
so based on my projected pace it will be to far back
the Speed Rating +TV seem slow
compaired to horses 5 and 6
Also realitive to this field
with such a low purse # 2's CR is low so I will not help it
and try line 6 from Beu
No Line

[admin]

Lots of color in the fractions
I used line 1 7 days ago from Tam.
The sy line from cby with a +24 worries me