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| Hat Check - How Can We Help You? Jim 'The Hat' Bradshaw - Learn The Matchup |
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#31 |
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Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,655
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Richie,GREAT JOB you could write a book yourself.Jeff
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#32 | ||
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True Disciple of Voodoo
Join Date: May 2006
Location: EarthQuake country( cali , baby)
Posts: 349
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It took me my 9th or 10th reading of the MatchUp 2 book to realize what Richie has posted on 2nd Key-Positioning/Beaten lengths; the Pace of Race, last line, the fastest, at todays distance, and todays track, TODAY, if possible. A good call to spend so much time on this subject(BEATEN LENGTHS AND POSITIONS); sometimes, a subject of extreme frustration trying to master the MatchUp.
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#33 |
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Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 467
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"We are going to bet the horse closest to the lead positionally factoring in pace of race" - The Hat
You lost me, Richie. I only got one of the examples right. "factoring in pace of race." What exactly do you mean by this? |
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#34 |
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Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 467
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I think I've got it now.
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#35 |
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Grade 1
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: I live in Toronto, Ontario, can
Posts: 220
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Hi Richie!!
Can you explain what you mean by factoring in pace of race." Do you mean to look at all the horses last race and pick the fastest pace (if possible close to today's distant.) And than pick a horse that will run close to that pace. And don't look at the lengths that the horse is behine the leader. I am confused. Do we look at the first 2 calls to find this horse that is close to the pace. |
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#36 | |
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Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,019
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Quote:
ok this part of what I wrote: 3) When you FIRST open a race scroll the horses and find the fastest PACE OF RACE from the LAST RACE. Look at the horse(s) and check the position and beaten lenghts at 1c AND 2c. If the horse maintains position and/or beaten lenghts (NOT talking about pos 8-8 for ex, some looking at races like this will show YOU what is ok) this is a TRIGGER to open the horse's WHOLE pp's up and evaluate him off BEST line (s). You can make a personal SPOT PLAY from this type horse WHEN he FITS the race shape you are projecting to win today (early or other than early). -------------------------------------------------------------------------- has NOTHING to do with the 7 screenshots shown amigo. The "fastest pace from last race" is something Jim taught me to do in EVERY race I open up to work. This is kind of a primer to start seeing things about the race that might reveal a horse who is extremely dangerous from what he shows in his LAST RACE. 1) Battling for the lead from 1c-2c 2) making a QUICK positional move from 1c-2c etc etc. Note that the last thing written about this is the "possibility to make a personal SPOT PLAY from this type of horse WHEN it fits today's winning race shape early or other than early" Emilio we do this FIRST when looking at a race. Then if the horse shows NOTHING against the pace we MOVE ON with the working of the race matching etc etc. If he DOES show positive signs from the race we then have to see if he FITS the race shape thats gonna win today a) Early - projecting a wire to wire win b) Other than early - ALL other races For example: Our horse battled gamely from 1c-2c against the fastest pace from last race before collapsing. ok so we open his pp's up and grab his fastest line( Power line) to evaluate against the others today. BUT in todays race there are 2 or 3 other PURE EARLY runners and our guy is the SAME. If he can NOT pass horses he is identified as EARLY style and with the other earlies in the race (assuming their 1st fractions are at least as fast as our guy) TODAY'S winner is gonna be Other than early. Our horse does NOT fit this shape ok? That's why I described this "look" at the fastest pace from last race" as a good thing to create a SPOT PLAY type deal from. It's only gonna help us in SOME races BUT we have to do the mental work and look at EVERY race to find the ones where it WILL tell us something. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- All this has NOTHING to do with the screen shots shown. The screenshots are simply the horse's POWER LINES or lines that make then FAST. Thats what we match from and bet the horse closest to the lead positionally factoring in pace of race. I hope this clear things up a bit Richie
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"Grampy I'm talking to you!" |
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#37 |
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Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,019
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GOOD.
Steve what I did when learning positioning from Jim was to keep looking over and over and over at the "pictures" of what it was ok? That repetition helped a LOT. Jim is an extremely SHARP teacher and this is what he did with me so I pass it along here Richie
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"Grampy I'm talking to you!" |
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#38 |
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Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,019
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3rd Key - Early / Other than early
Let's go directly to the BIG question. WHOM are we going to bet in THIS race. No sense dancing around this. We will deal with the rest after.
"Rich the race is going to be run Early or other than early ok? Forget about nitpicking running styles with all this presser,early presser,sustained presser,late bullcrap. This is a much simpler way to look at a race and find the horse to bet. Keep an OPEN mind." - Jim Bradshaw ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Finding the horse to BET: EARLY - a horse who we project to wire the TODAY'S field. When looking at the pp's for the race this can be a horse who has the lead at the first call or a horse who is 2nd-hd / 2nd-nk but figures to get the lead against TODAY'S field and wire them. **This can only be ONE horse** ------------------------------------------------------------------------ I am going to show a couple of screenshots now but first PLEASE go back and read again the previous post about matching the earlies at the FIRST call and eliminating those that can NOT get the lead they need to WIN immediately ok? Very important. Here is a screenshot from just last night at Mnr. Here are the horse's Power lines. We see 2 early runners. The #4 and #8. Check the first calls on both and you should see the #4's life is over as the #8 DOMINATES him early. That means in TODAY'S matchup the #4 is NOT early but is reduced to other than early with the presence of the #8. He MUST be removed IMMEDIATLEY from consideration. NOW first the screenshot of the field please
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"Grampy I'm talking to you!" Last edited by RichieP; 02-13-2007 at 11:02 AM. |
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#39 |
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Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,019
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3rd Key - Early / Other than early - who to bet
we have removed the #4 and now re-evaluate the race.
The #8 now appears as Lone Early and has the added plus of TWO calls of "FIGHTING" (1c-2c) that should not happen today. This is extra units if energy available for him TODAY. Also notice that NOW the next closest horse POSITIONALLY after the #8 is position FOUR ok? There are NO pos 2 or even 3's NOW. We have a FAST dominant early horse with no positional challenges LOOK at the picture please
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"Grampy I'm talking to you!" Last edited by RichieP; 02-13-2007 at 12:04 PM. |
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#40 |
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Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,019
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3rd Key - Early / other than early - who to bet
so TODAY'S race is gonna run EARLY with the #8 dominant. So we throw EVERYONE else the heck out NOW.
Yes that's the Hat in action man. Throws whole chunks of the field out IMMMEDAITELY. Here is what is left to make WIN betting decisions from. kind of EASY to figure out THIS is how to figure out and work the EARLY race shapes. The #8 is the winner of the race - $4.80
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"Grampy I'm talking to you!" Last edited by RichieP; 02-13-2007 at 12:04 PM. |
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