Visual Pace Bias

[MM42]

Dick (or anybody else can jump in),

I did have a question about the Visual Pace Bias. I have been noticing that it is a bit inconsistent (I know nothing is perfect) or I could possibly interpreting it incorrectly. Example, Race 7 at Aqueduct on 4/6- VPS was 13. I considered this is a no-pressure race since it is closer to 12 (there was only one other horse that would challenge for the lead in the segments screen, the 5). The 8 went to the lead by himself, went extremely fast and the 7 closed in to win (I had in doubles on first leg, which I was happy about lol). When I think of pace, I think will the pace be fast or slow but from a time perspective. In this race, I anticipated a slow pace (from a time perspective), since very little speed. Yes, the 8 took the lead very easy and was not pressured at all (matching the lower end of the VPS of 13) but his fractions were extremely fast opening the door for closers/horses stalking. I am still new working with the data for a little over a week, so any insight will be helpful! Thank you!

Marc

[kahunab]

Marc,
I will try to answer your question as best I can. I do trust the Early Pace numbers to give me a raw idea of how the horse will "TRY" to run. But if he is a slow early he may not hold up. a P1 or an S1 will probably run to the back of the pack regardless of what his numbers say in the segments. We also can look at the EPR, LPR and TPR to see where the speed is. New Pace also gives us a look at the total past performances and rates with a 90% probability the range within which the horse should run today. Putting that all together we should be able to have a pretty good idea of how the race will run. Dave Schwartz from his research says 60% of all races run late. So when in doubt play it as if it will run late.
The race you sent is interesting in several ways. One I did not download this race until a little while ago so I don't have PL and BPP numbers. VDC, CSR, PL, and BPP make up the RMath or 4-Score score. It is a key score to calling a race for me. If you look at the 6 red boxes below, note the disparity you will see among the boxes. I would call this a Chaos race and probably pass. Looking at multiple screens if I had to play my key would be the 7. He has the most consistent scores across all of the 6 red boxes. Companion horses would be a bit tougher.


The Segments screen supports that the 8 will get the lead without much trouble and the question is, "Who can catch him?" The 5, 6,7 and 4 appear to make up the ground on left side of the screen under the Fin Panel. and under the late side under the TS+F3 panel if the race should finish late. With 1 Early horse why not play him as a Companion horse? If he wins great, if not you have the late horses to beat him or the Key to come in 2nd where you make a good profit with an unlikely winner and your Key coming in 2nd.


New Pace adds some good information in this race. Our 7 is confirmed as the best Leverage Pace horse, he has good SR rating. A great choice as a Key. The 8 with the 63% shows he will get the lead. So who are our companions? If we agree that it will run Total or Early then we Key the 7 with the 5,6,8,4.



If we play it late from the NP screen, we key the 7 with the 6,2,1,5. Note who the top 4 horses are.


All of this is to say determining the pace bias is a bit of an art and takes work but mostly calling the bias for the race, watch it and figure out why it went the way you called it or not. It will mostly follow the Early Speed Points but sometimes it won't. These are horses and if you have ever owned one, they can be very stubborn and do only what they want to do. We are playing probabilities here. (Editorial Comment: A 120 pound man can only hang on to a 1200 pound horse on the loose.)
and by looking at the race we see the 8 got loose had a nice lead but really folded in the stretch. Our 7 ran up close in a Presser position and closed nicely. The 2 ran in mid pack early and closed to 3rd at the 2nd call and hung on. The 6 ran a rather disjointed race but finished 3rd with the 1 and 4 close behind.


I hope this helps Marc.

[MM42]

Dick,

That was a very helpful evaluation of the race!

I did have a question about the segments screen since we both included it. This question can be for any race. Can you confirm if I am interpreting the segment screen correctly? When we look at the FIN column, that is the data telling us who will finish first, second, third etc based on the lengths (0.0 would obviously mean they came in first). I know you mentioned above but also want to confirm, the TS + F3 section is a finish based on if we have a fast pace?

Marc

[kahunab]

Hi Marc,
I read it as a pace and position match up. I read the left side to show us if the race is going to run Early or Neutral. I read the right side if I think the race will run Late. i.e. the TS+F3 panel.

Dick

[kahunab]

Marc,
I woke up this morning thinking about the discussion we had yesterday and realized I forgot to mention one idea that helps me. The race may not always look like it is running the way the points predict but the points did predict the outcome.

This race was a 13. A Neutral score. That should lean us to TPR with balance and good Early. Look at this section of the LP screen.



Notice the only horse with the good TPR and Good EPR and balance is our winner the 7. Number 2 TPR doesn't have good EPR or balance. Likewise, the #1TPR horse has poor early too. This race actually falls out if we treat it as a neutral race.

A side note: The 2 horse who placed is the class horse of the field, if you look at his PPs you will see that he has 4 sprint lines in his history. Give him the any of his other sprint lines and he gives you an clear indication that he can hit the board.