Hoosier Park 2nd Race Nov. 2 - Pace and Cap

cprescigno · 11-02-2005, 01:24 AM

David,
Decided to take your advice and check out Hoosier Park for tomorrow. I did well at Philadelphia Park today hitting the winner in the first with the Exacta and Box Trifecta. Also hit the early double with the winner in the second.
Most of the other races were all chalk winners though I took a shot at the 9th and missed.

This is the second race at Hoosier Park Nov 2. It looks like a pretty good betting opportunity for a decent paying win bet and maybe an exacta unless I am missing some serious track bias. Any thoughts?

PP Horse SR LS TS DECL ENT BAL ESP ML
3 Denim 67 20.0 1 1 1 6 S/P 12/1
2 foxy 65 19.5 2 2 2 5 SUS 10/1
4 Matti 64 19.0 3 4 3 6 E/P 5/1
6 Supri 64 19.0 3 5 5 6 EAR 4/1

I think I'm going to like this track. Thanks for the advice.

While it looks like this might go on a strong second look there is no way these pacelines will hold. The 3 is just too late, the 2 won't run a sprint, the 4 still has a shot but after going through the pacelines again I think I'll just sit this one out and watch the race to see what happens.
When something seems too good to be true, it usually is.

Charlie

alydar_ David · 11-02-2005, 04:19 PM

Charlie,

Glad to hear you had a good day at the windows.

About the second race at HOO tonight, November 2.

Model Information:
Based on the last 26 "races like this one" the following is relevant.

One of the top three SP horses wins 65% of the time.
#4 #6 #7

One of the top two TPR horses wins 50% of the time.
#6 #4

The top EP horse wins 19% of the time. That's not much, but it's the highest single factor.
#6

Analysis:
#6 Surprise Party should be all alone at the second call. #4 Mattie Silks and #7 June Bug Baby look like the only ones with a chance to catch her, but she'll probably be too far ahead for that to happen.

All three of them are 3-1 or more on the morning line. So, there could be profit to be made on the win end.

As for the exotics, if you're right about the 12-1 shot it might be time to send it in.

Good luck if you play tonight!

cprescigno · 11-02-2005, 05:20 PM

David,

Thanks for the input but after taking a better look at the pacelines for this race I decided to stay out of it. I'm finding I make much better decisions in the morning and afternoon than I do late at night.

Can't make any sense of the pacelines. Better to sit back and watch this one.

What are you using to maintain your statiistics? Looks like it works pretty well for you.

Charlie

alydar_ David · 11-02-2005, 05:53 PM

Charlie,

I use more than one program to keep track of things.

Bettor Keep Track is the best, but the manual entry is a bear. Still, I'd recommend that for someone who only plays one or two tracks. For multi-track players the data entry is a never ending nightmare.

I'm not satisfied with anything I've seen on the market yet. Who knows? Mabye someone here will come up with something?

alydar_ David · 11-02-2005, 08:14 PM

No bet.

At two minutes to post #6 and #4 were both hides = Pass.

2nd race - Hoosier Park - November 02, 2005
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
7 June Bug Baby 7.00 3.20 2.20
8 Derby Doll 5.20 3.20
6 Suprise Party 2.40

$2 Daily Double 6-7 24.40
$2 Exacta 7-8 41.00
$2 Superfecta 7-8-6-4 214.80
$2 Trifecta 7-8-6 99.40

cprescigno · 11-02-2005, 08:52 PM

Glad I took a better look and stayed out of that one. The pacelines were realy tough.
The 5th race was a much better choice. Now all I have to do is find out where the 4 horse is.
I was looking at the 4-3-7-2
Came in 5-7-6-2

Can't see the 3 or 6 taking this one. Lot's to learn here, as always.

Charlie
\

11-02-2005, 01:24 AM	#1
cprescigno Spec Rookie Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: NYC Posts: 258	Hoosier Park 2nd Race Nov. 2 David, Decided to take your advice and check out Hoosier Park for tomorrow. I did well at Philadelphia Park today hitting the winner in the first with the Exacta and Box Trifecta. Also hit the early double with the winner in the second. Most of the other races were all chalk winners though I took a shot at the 9th and missed. This is the second race at Hoosier Park Nov 2. It looks like a pretty good betting opportunity for a decent paying win bet and maybe an exacta unless I am missing some serious track bias. Any thoughts? PP Horse SR LS TS DECL ENT BAL ESP ML 3 Denim 67 20.0 1 1 1 6 S/P 12/1 2 foxy 65 19.5 2 2 2 5 SUS 10/1 4 Matti 64 19.0 3 4 3 6 E/P 5/1 6 Supri 64 19.0 3 5 5 6 EAR 4/1 I think I'm going to like this track. Thanks for the advice. While it looks like this might go on a strong second look there is no way these pacelines will hold. The 3 is just too late, the 2 won't run a sprint, the 4 still has a shot but after going through the pacelines again I think I'll just sit this one out and watch the race to see what happens. When something seems too good to be true, it usually is. Charlie Last edited by cprescigno; 11-02-2005 at 07:10 AM.

11-02-2005, 04:19 PM	#2
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Charlie, Glad to hear you had a good day at the windows. About the second race at HOO tonight, November 2. Model Information: Based on the last 26 "races like this one" the following is relevant. One of the top three SP horses wins 65% of the time. #4 #6 #7 One of the top two TPR horses wins 50% of the time. #6 #4 The top EP horse wins 19% of the time. That's not much, but it's the highest single factor. #6 Analysis: #6 Surprise Party should be all alone at the second call. #4 Mattie Silks and #7 June Bug Baby look like the only ones with a chance to catch her, but she'll probably be too far ahead for that to happen. All three of them are 3-1 or more on the morning line. So, there could be profit to be made on the win end. As for the exotics, if you're right about the 12-1 shot it might be time to send it in. Good luck if you play tonight!

11-02-2005, 05:20 PM	#3
cprescigno Spec Rookie Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: NYC Posts: 258	David, Thanks for the input but after taking a better look at the pacelines for this race I decided to stay out of it. I'm finding I make much better decisions in the morning and afternoon than I do late at night. Can't make any sense of the pacelines. Better to sit back and watch this one. What are you using to maintain your statiistics? Looks like it works pretty well for you. Charlie

11-02-2005, 05:53 PM	#4
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Charlie, I use more than one program to keep track of things. Bettor Keep Track is the best, but the manual entry is a bear. Still, I'd recommend that for someone who only plays one or two tracks. For multi-track players the data entry is a never ending nightmare. I'm not satisfied with anything I've seen on the market yet. Who knows? Mabye someone here will come up with something?

11-02-2005, 08:14 PM	#5
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	No bet. At two minutes to post #6 and #4 were both hides = Pass. 2nd race - Hoosier Park - November 02, 2005 Pgm Horse Win Place Show 7 June Bug Baby 7.00 3.20 2.20 8 Derby Doll 5.20 3.20 6 Suprise Party 2.40 $2 Daily Double 6-7 24.40 $2 Exacta 7-8 41.00 $2 Superfecta 7-8-6-4 214.80 $2 Trifecta 7-8-6 99.40

11-02-2005, 08:52 PM	#6
cprescigno Spec Rookie Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: NYC Posts: 258	Glad I took a better look and stayed out of that one. The pacelines were realy tough. The 5th race was a much better choice. Now all I have to do is find out where the 4 horse is. I was looking at the 4-3-7-2 Came in 5-7-6-2 Can't see the 3 or 6 taking this one. Lot's to learn here, as always. Charlie \