Betting on Longshots

[mick]

This is an interesting article that I re-read periodically. It's a "Q&A" with Justin Finch, TimeForm's West Coast analyst.

http://timeformusblog.com/2015/02/19...-all-there-is/

Finch is a smart guy and if you have about 20 minutes, it's worth reading. The gist is that while we think we know things, we really don't. A horse race is inherently unpredictable and some are down right chaotic. Post-time favorites do win a third of the time, but it's the other two thirds that make this game so interesting. And if you're willing to put in the time and have the courage to bet the prices, profitable.

BTW, he mentions Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the ultimate contrarian stock trader who makes fortunes on market disasters. I've read his "Fooled by Randomness" and plan to read his other books.

A lot of this is in the back of my mind when I'm about to bet on a Tier 3 horse going off at 15-1 and on the PPs, doesn't look like he has a chance. But we really don't know how the horses will run and RDSS has found something in a paceline that just might be significant. I'm writing this after I took a thrashing today but I can hardly wait until tomorrow's first race. No, my wife doesn't understand but she loves me anyway.