LIVE - TAM 3rd - 4/26/17 - Pace and Cap

Jeebs · 04-26-2017, 01:50 PM

Tam 3rd - 1 mile on Turf, Clm16000n2L for 3+

Pacelines:
#1 - No Line/Non-Contender. This one is an E/EP runner on dirt going short. Even looking at its 2015 turf races at the bottom of the page, I am skeptical of this one switching surfaces.
#2 - Line 1. Both L1 and L3 are top percept total efforts and show a mid-to-very sustained graphing. Last out was a top effort despite the visual line, so I will give it the last line to rate.
#3 - No Line/Non-Contender. 1/35 lifetime and 1/27 going long on the lawn. No upside in taking this one at the current odds (6-1 at this posting) based on the record. If it wins, I lose and move on.
#4 - No Line/Non-Contender. To quote The Hat, this one has become "a slow horse" if it wasn't slow already! L1 and L2 are slow route races. Its recent turf efforts are balanced more toward the Early than Sustained, which could present problems, since it doesn't have strong enough F3's to stay in the later rounds.
#5 - Line 9. 1/18 life and no discernable turf form, other than its one turf route (L9), which shows a sustained pattern in the 2nd and 3rd fraction. Can that line translate into success here?
#6 - Line 1. 1/20 life but seemed to wake up a little bit on the surface switch. Tough customer if it can duplicate the $25k tag effort today.
#7 - No Line/Non-Contender. The pattern is that of a slow, sustained runner, who is either too far back early, or too close early and not sustained enough late.

Based on odds, the race is a pass. Tough to take the #6 at that price, despite the fact that it has a 3.7 pt TPR edge.

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04-26-2017, 01:50 PM	#1
Jeebs Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 909	LIVE - TAM 3rd - 4/26/17 Tam 3rd - 1 mile on Turf, Clm16000n2L for 3+ Pacelines: #1 - No Line/Non-Contender. This one is an E/EP runner on dirt going short. Even looking at its 2015 turf races at the bottom of the page, I am skeptical of this one switching surfaces. #2 - Line 1. Both L1 and L3 are top percept total efforts and show a mid-to-very sustained graphing. Last out was a top effort despite the visual line, so I will give it the last line to rate. #3 - No Line/Non-Contender. 1/35 lifetime and 1/27 going long on the lawn. No upside in taking this one at the current odds (6-1 at this posting) based on the record. If it wins, I lose and move on. #4 - No Line/Non-Contender. To quote The Hat, this one has become "a slow horse" if it wasn't slow already! L1 and L2 are slow route races. Its recent turf efforts are balanced more toward the Early than Sustained, which could present problems, since it doesn't have strong enough F3's to stay in the later rounds. #5 - Line 9. 1/18 life and no discernable turf form, other than its one turf route (L9), which shows a sustained pattern in the 2nd and 3rd fraction. Can that line translate into success here? #6 - Line 1. 1/20 life but seemed to wake up a little bit on the surface switch. Tough customer if it can duplicate the $25k tag effort today. #7 - No Line/Non-Contender. The pattern is that of a slow, sustained runner, who is either too far back early, or too close early and not sustained enough late. Based on odds, the race is a pass. Tough to take the #6 at that price, despite the fact that it has a 3.7 pt TPR edge.