Omar's 2016 Ky Derby Analysis - Pace and Cap

omar · 05-06-2016, 10:45 PM

Before I begin I would like to point out that the Tampa Bay Derby is shaping up to be a "KEY" race.Outwork and Brody's Cause came back to win Gr. Stakes while Economic Model,who ran 9th and last,came back on 5/4 to win an Allowance race at Belmont.Star Hill,who ran 3rd at Tampa,finished 5th behind B.C. in the bluegrass.So that leaves us with Destin,who won the Tampa derby.I'll get back to him in a bit.
First I eyeballed the pp's and guess what,just not a lot of speed in this race but there's certainly a bevy of closers! Next i like to see which horses can transfer their sprint speed to routes since that info is available and 2 things jump up at me:a)only a few horses ran in sprints and b)Exaggerator seems to be able transfer his speed to routes.True he shows 3 wins on an off track at different tracks but he shows he can win on a fast surface too.True he got beat by #13 3 times but he doesn't have to do the heavy lifting in this race and should benefit from it.So much for my fundamental analysis now for my technical analysis.
I always focus on Sustained Pace(SP)in races of 1-1/4 and up.But i see 8 or 9 horses that are close together here. What i'll focus on then will be the pace shape of race and the horse's Deceleration#,in other words which horse will slow down the least(who can maintain their energy level the longest).Looking at my program,the horses who should be contesting the pace at F1(3/4)are #'s:20(57.49),17(57.14),15(56.23)13(56.06),16(55.72),18(55.59),14(55.48),5(55.56);at C2: #'s 20(57.25),11(56.93),5(56.60),2(54.84); at F2 we have #11(60.04),4(58.05),5(57.62),20(57.02),2&14(56.48),3(56.12);but to clarify all this i look at the deceleration # of these horses:# 9=-.49# 2=-.84,# 4=.99,# 11=-1.74,#6=-1.86, #14=-2.18,#3=-2.51 and #20=-5.32.disregard the minus sign and just look at the whole numbers.
The horses who ran faster at F2 than at F1 are as follows:2,3,4,5,6,9,10,11,14,19 and 20 while the lowest deceleration #'s:4,2,9,11,6 and 14 in that order.Now to separate this mess i look towards the 3rd fraction and viola one horse sticks out-the 9(54.21).The next closest would be the 14(53.30),2(51.20),3(51.45),4(52.41),11(52.05),6(52.04).
now go back to what i said about the tampa bay derby if the last place horse can come back and win on 5/4 then i have no doubts about the 9 giving a good account of himself here. i see 4 or 5 horses hitting the wire almost together but i have to give and the edge to the 9 on closing ability and freshness while the 11 gets it on versatility on his running style and pace class.i would also use the 2,3,4,5,6,14 and 19 in my exotics around the 9 & 11.
In case your wondering who i am, i'm a friend of Bill V.,i use to hang out in his section at the Meadowlands. Happy hunting.

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05-06-2016, 10:45 PM	#1
omar Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 378	Omar's 2016 Ky Derby Analysis Before I begin I would like to point out that the Tampa Bay Derby is shaping up to be a "KEY" race.Outwork and Brody's Cause came back to win Gr. Stakes while Economic Model,who ran 9th and last,came back on 5/4 to win an Allowance race at Belmont.Star Hill,who ran 3rd at Tampa,finished 5th behind B.C. in the bluegrass.So that leaves us with Destin,who won the Tampa derby.I'll get back to him in a bit. First I eyeballed the pp's and guess what,just not a lot of speed in this race but there's certainly a bevy of closers! Next i like to see which horses can transfer their sprint speed to routes since that info is available and 2 things jump up at me:a)only a few horses ran in sprints and b)Exaggerator seems to be able transfer his speed to routes.True he shows 3 wins on an off track at different tracks but he shows he can win on a fast surface too.True he got beat by #13 3 times but he doesn't have to do the heavy lifting in this race and should benefit from it.So much for my fundamental analysis now for my technical analysis. I always focus on Sustained Pace(SP)in races of 1-1/4 and up.But i see 8 or 9 horses that are close together here. What i'll focus on then will be the pace shape of race and the horse's Deceleration#,in other words which horse will slow down the least(who can maintain their energy level the longest).Looking at my program,the horses who should be contesting the pace at F1(3/4)are #'s:20(57.49),17(57.14),15(56.23)13(56.06),16(55.72),18(55.59),14(55.48),5(55.56);at C2: #'s 20(57.25),11(56.93),5(56.60),2(54.84); at F2 we have #11(60.04),4(58.05),5(57.62),20(57.02),2&14(56.48),3(56.12);but to clarify all this i look at the deceleration # of these horses:# 9=-.49# 2=-.84,# 4=.99,# 11=-1.74,#6=-1.86, #14=-2.18,#3=-2.51 and #20=-5.32.disregard the minus sign and just look at the whole numbers. The horses who ran faster at F2 than at F1 are as follows:2,3,4,5,6,9,10,11,14,19 and 20 while the lowest deceleration #'s:4,2,9,11,6 and 14 in that order.Now to separate this mess i look towards the 3rd fraction and viola one horse sticks out-the 9(54.21).The next closest would be the 14(53.30),2(51.20),3(51.45),4(52.41),11(52.05),6(52.04). now go back to what i said about the tampa bay derby if the last place horse can come back and win on 5/4 then i have no doubts about the 9 giving a good account of himself here. i see 4 or 5 horses hitting the wire almost together but i have to give and the edge to the 9 on closing ability and freshness while the 11 gets it on versatility on his running style and pace class.i would also use the 2,3,4,5,6,14 and 19 in my exotics around the 9 & 11. In case your wondering who i am, i'm a friend of Bill V.,i use to hang out in his section at the Meadowlands. Happy hunting.