Omar's 2016 Derby Postmortem - Pace and Cap

omar · 05-08-2016, 11:31 AM

In retrospect if i would take my own advice on pace line selection that i've been using for years: if the 1st race back from a layoff is better than the 2nd race back then i look for improvement next time out and use the 1st race back line to run the numbers because it's normal for a horse to regress after that strong effort. It doesn't mean that a horse cannot run a good race or win in that 2nd race back but the numbers will reflect a weaker showing than the 1st back.
If i use the 7f race, now he runs faster in the 2nd fraction than the 1st 58.61,60.09(right with #11) and his 3rd fraction is 54.67(just below the #9),his SP was 57.00( nobody was close to that) versus 55.17 in his 7f race before the Breeders Cup race and his Florida derby numbers were better than his BC juvenile race numbers. So if you expect improvement off his last race then you have to use another race to project that improvement!
Hindsight is not 20.20 its 30.60 in the exacta,532 in the super...how about that 2 horse he still keeps trying. If these top horses have distance limitations,then i look for the 2 in the belmont stakes,like a victory gallop or a birdstone.
I did have $8 win in pool 1 on nyquist and mohaymen. pool 1 returned $21.80 for each $2 win ticket. i'm glad i had the foresight to bet them last november.

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05-08-2016, 11:31 AM	#1
omar Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 378	Omar's 2016 Derby Postmortem In retrospect if i would take my own advice on pace line selection that i've been using for years: if the 1st race back from a layoff is better than the 2nd race back then i look for improvement next time out and use the 1st race back line to run the numbers because it's normal for a horse to regress after that strong effort. It doesn't mean that a horse cannot run a good race or win in that 2nd race back but the numbers will reflect a weaker showing than the 1st back. If i use the 7f race, now he runs faster in the 2nd fraction than the 1st 58.61,60.09(right with #11) and his 3rd fraction is 54.67(just below the #9),his SP was 57.00( nobody was close to that) versus 55.17 in his 7f race before the Breeders Cup race and his Florida derby numbers were better than his BC juvenile race numbers. So if you expect improvement off his last race then you have to use another race to project that improvement! Hindsight is not 20.20 its 30.60 in the exacta,532 in the super...how about that 2 horse he still keeps trying. If these top horses have distance limitations,then i look for the 2 in the belmont stakes,like a victory gallop or a birdstone. I did have $8 win in pool 1 on nyquist and mohaymen. pool 1 returned $21.80 for each $2 win ticket. i'm glad i had the foresight to bet them last november.