You're not as smart as you think you are... - Pace and Cap

alydar_ David · 09-01-2006, 01:51 PM

...or, at least I'm not.

It's interesting (and should be helpful) to note motifs in one's betting.

For example, I always tend to outsmart myself.

Here are my personal results for prime plays on dirt races for non-maidens this year; these are single win bets on "can't lose" horses going off at 4-1 or more. Obviously, these bets don't come up every day.

I won 21% of my win bets.

Note, if I'd made a flat bet on each on them I'd have gotten back $1.55 for every dollar I invested.

So, what really happened? By varying my bet size I got back $1.33 for every $1.00 invested.

My duh.

The thing is...this happens every year. I keep records. I know. So, why do I persist in outsmarting myself?

Good question.

09-01-2006, 01:51 PM	#1
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	You're not as smart as you think you are... ...or, at least I'm not. It's interesting (and should be helpful) to note motifs in one's betting. For example, I always tend to outsmart myself. Here are my personal results for prime plays on dirt races for non-maidens this year; these are single win bets on "can't lose" horses going off at 4-1 or more. Obviously, these bets don't come up every day. I won 21% of my win bets. Note, if I'd made a flat bet on each on them I'd have gotten back $1.55 for every dollar I invested. So, what really happened? By varying my bet size I got back $1.33 for every $1.00 invested. My duh. The thing is...this happens every year. I keep records. I know. So, why do I persist in outsmarting myself? Good question. Attached Images