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Old 04-11-2020, 12:57 PM   #11
omar
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Join Date: Oct 2012
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My belief is this: on the dirt long layoffs are the kiss of death. Even the best horses on the ground can't find a win following their Breeders Cup wins coming back in January or February the following year. If the best horses can't do it what makes you think ordinary horses will. There's only a handful of horses that specialize in that department but unless they show it in their pp's, stay away.
On the turf I ignore layoffs because these types invariably come back running. I've seen this year after year for the last 45 years. People still won't play these horses. If you eliminate a horse on the grass because it didn't race recently, do it at your own risk. Hey don't take my word for it, do your own research on equibase, the full charts are FREE. CLASS is also very important on the grass, sprint pr routes. On 4/5 in last race at GP #11 blew up the tote board with the most back class in race running 2nd.
As far as works are concerned I specifically look for sharp fast works in races for 3yos following their last race for FORM REVERSALS (BIG BOUNCE) as long as they don't show it in their previous works. For examples of this look at the 1st races at GP on 3/14 and 3/15 on the winners, one a FTS paying $85 and the other $36.
Gulfstream Park - Race 1 on 03 14 2020.pdf

Gulfstream Park - Race 1 on 03 15 2020.pdf

Last edited by omar; 04-11-2020 at 01:13 PM.
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