New Program /workout %

[Mitch44]

If one were to go back in my posts for 90-day horses, there are insights that co-inside with this use of % of workouts. I'll give it again here as it applies to both multiple qualifiers of % of workouts and separators.

Among the things I consider for long layoff horses is simply odds. I know 90-day horses only win 10% of the time so one of my qualifiers is to demand 9-1 odds and higher. It compensated for the losing horses even though they meet my other qualifications.
In MSW races with workout % I also look for horses 9-1 and up. At times I have just bet the 2 or 3 highest and hit horses paying $40 $50 & $60. I also lessen the bet and bet more horses.

This gets all kinds of prices, one day alone 4 horses won. I took 5-2 on one and on another it keyed a nice $25 EX.

Consider how many contenders, degree of information on race or how many unknown factors and adjust. On 90 day and MSW with several FTS I demand 9-1 and up Risk and reward. For older horses there more information to go by so that 9-1 can be lowered. But an older horse race can have Unknown factors in them such as a couple of horses stretching out etc.

Adjust to your assessment of the race. Yesterday at KD there were at least 6 legit horses that could win the race, most races only 3 or 4. A favorite in this situation is poor risk verses reward. It not an accurate way of doing this, that is demanding 9-1 in all races because some races just aren't as risky, Winners can be missed both ways. Try demanding 9-1 only on an RX factor. Yor going to play very few races and watch winner after winners go by.

Teaching betting is a difficult task, I don't even know how my bet will be until about 5 minutes before the race goes off.

I can't give an answer to every betting situation, number of qualifiers for any given angle. You could demand 7-1 or 8-1 or any other odds. I can pick 65% and higher, sometimes 75 or 80% but I've found it's not how many winners you get but how you play those winners and make a profit.

What % of workout does it take to win a MSW? An STS that was out of the money in an initial outing gets overlooked. It may have had early speed and even led to the SC or Stretch which is as good as a high % workout. In fact, even better because it was from a gate under condition that don't happen in a workout. It was just a short horse and a couple slow workouts or just daily canter or jog each day maybe all it needs. Would you bet it if it also did this in its second start. I would not but to each their own?

Hope this answers some of your ? on multiple qualifiers and some situations. You learn by doing and it's the best teacher. You could make a list of key points I guess to get with the program of % workouts, it might help. Mind is just in my head.

Mitch44