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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

 
 
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Old 04-17-2023, 04:44 AM   #27
DanBoals
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 453
Further explanation from suggestion thread

Example race of how I use pace vectors. This race was from today at AQU.

2, 5 and 7 are just not fast enough, their TE and aSR are too low so they are non contenders for me.

3, 4 and 9 are not turf runners, but they are in form.
3 shows 1 turf route in his career and was not itm.
4 shows 2 turf routes, and was not itm in either.
9 has 1 turf route in his last 18 races and finished dead last.

If none of the contenders showed the pace vector profile I am looking for, but one of the secondary contenders did, then I would elevate him to contender.

1, 6, 8 and 10 are my turf runners.

My profile shows that for 8.5f on turf there have been 4 races and in each, the horse made either a big 2nd fraction or 3rd fraction move, or both.

Of the secondary contenders, 4 shows this running style in his 9f on the mud 15 days ago, but being out of the money in his 2 lifetime turf routes, I really can't go with him.

8 has good early speed, but he falls behind this group in F2 and F3 being ranked 3rd and 4th respectively.

1 has the top F2 speed and 2nd best F3, so he looks like a strong candidate.

10, like 8, starts fast, but then fades when compared to 1 and 6.

6 has the 2nd best F2, and then finishes strong with the best F3.

1 and 6 fit the profile best.

8 and 10 seem like they will be out front and then get passed in the stretch.

The first graph is the profile of the winners of the 4 previous races at this distance and surface for this meet.

The second graph is the original data screen for the race.

The third graph is the pace of horse screen with the fps for each fraction and the pace vectors of the races they came out of.

The final graph is the result chart.

Hope this helps,

Dan
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