Once we have the 5 contenders and the 3 arrow horses, where do we go from here?

[kahunab]

Jake commented and asks the question:
So, let’s what might be the next steps here?

Handicapping for me reduces down to position and energy. The mechanics are the Sartin factors. RDSS is a great set of tools that allow you to sample both position and energy accurately, as long as your pace-line selection is appropriate. This isn’t rocket science, even if it sounds like it at times, but does lend itself to some rigorous logical inference. What you sample (factors) and when you sample (fractions) strongly matter. In fact, that provides the framework to envision likely matchups.

So, my questions which I have attempted to get answered by you, originate from those above premises. The first part of Leverage Pace is brilliant, for handicapping ease, while the latter half of Leverage Pace seems badly ill-purposed to me; my reasons for saying this were stated in my last posts.


I would re-phrase the question to: Now that you have 5 contenders and 3 arrow horses what is next in the process? Here is where things get a bit murky in my mind. The big task is to figure out what is the pace scenario and which of our key horses benefits. (I hope I am understanding this correctly. OLD brain you know!)
From my point of view, the answer lies in pattern recognition. I wish there was a marker that popped up and said, “Key this one!” What I have learned is to look in several screens and find a pattern that suggest a good play.
I chose a couple from today that demonstrate what I mean. We can examine other patterns in the future if you like.
Here are two races from Finger Lakes today. Lets look at all the screens.
First the Leverage Pace Screen. We note the 2 horse is marked with an EPR that says he should get the lead. We have 19 Quirin Speed points which indicate a late race. Where is the rest of the early pressure coming from? The 2 has 8 of the 19 points. It doesn’t look like a heavy pressure race from the surface. The 2 is very strong. Look at his 4-score advantage as well as his RX3 advantage.



The BL/BL screen also indicates the 2 will get the lead. I love his #1FW and FX. His balance score indicates that his energy expenditure matches the other horses in the field.

Now we look at the Segments screen. Notice the Beaten lengths in the first fraction. What a huge advantage.



Now the New Pace screen. When you look at this screen you note that even though there are 19 early speed points, 8 of the early speed points come from a horse that can’t compete. His history says he will be slow. He is on the bottom of the graph. With every other horse near the top being a late rated horse, I pick the 2 horse as my key.



The results, how did it run?

As we can see, it ran just like we expected. The 2 and the 6 broke from the gate and by the 2nd call the 6 horse had blown up and was 5 lengths behind. He was to slow to put the pressure on the 2. A presser closed to get 2nd , he was 9 lengths off at the wire.



Can you see the pattern here over several screens? I hope you noticed that I did not get too precise.