Kentucky Derby last 11 runnings - The Marathon Method

[Bill Lyster]

The Hat said that any race over 10 furlongs and especially the Derby is won by the horse who ran against the best mile time (in races over one mile) and was closest to or on the lead at that point. I think being close was somewhere around no more than 2-3 lengths at the mile call. So you can take the chart call of the mile time in 9f races or deduct 6.4 seconds from the final time of races at 8.5 furlongs to get approximate mile split times. True contenders maintain or gain on the lead from the mile to the finish.

The reasoning for the mile time being key is that only those that had raced farther than a mile and were on or very close to the lead were the only ones with energy left to finish so early in their careers.

Several years ago I posted stats on Marathon races. You would have to search back. Either Marathon Races or dates within a day or two of Derby day in any year would find either the exact Hat Method.

So look, with the exception of the 80/1 outlier Rich Strike, all of the last 11 Derbys winners were close to the lead at the mile call and either maintained or gained position to win!!

Good luck this weekend






In this table the column labeled mile shows the horse position and L/B is lengths back; the next call is the STRetch followed by Lengths back

Kentucky Derby
Year Mile Time Mile L/B Str L/B Fin
2025 136.54 4 1 1 0 1
2024 137.46 1 0 1 0 1
2023 136.06 6 2 2 h 1
2022 136.96 15 7.5 3 4 1
2021 135.98 1 0 1 0 1
2020 135.02 1 0 1 0 1
2019 138.63 2 0 1 0 1
2018 137.35 1 0 1 0 1
2017 137.27 1 0 1 0 1
2016 135.61 2 0 1 0 1
2015 136.45 3 0 1 0 1