The Process

[atlasaxis]

Originally Posted by AwesomeAgain

Thank you Tom, and those are fair questions. I am not presenting this as some magical black box or fully automated solution. To me, NewPace is primarily a framework for understanding projected race stress, survivability, and how energy distribution interacts with pace structure.

I actually set out to learn and understand NewPace about 3 years ago because I wanted to improve as a win bettor. The deeper I got into it, the more I realized it was forcing me to think less about labels and more about how races actually unfold under pressure.

I do think some parts are objective and repeatable. POR, EPR, velocity rankings, V/DC, deceleration, and energy distribution are measurable. Where interpretation enters is in understanding how those components interact inside a specific race shape. Two users may not always arrive at the same conclusion, but I would argue the same has always been true with the Match Up and Sartin concepts in general.

As far as profitability, I absolutely agree that race filtering and value matter just as much as analysis itself. A horse can fit the projected shape perfectly and still be an underlay. Personally, I have found the approach strongest in races where pressure and race interaction are likely to matter most rather than soft, straightforward races dominated by raw ability alone.

I also agree with your larger point that many ideas can explain races after the fact. The real challenge is consistency, discipline, and identifying situations where the public is misunderstanding the pace structure. That is really what I am trying to explore and improve upon, not claim that I have solved the game.

Brian

Brian,

I appreciate the response. It’s nice to hear somebody discuss this stuff without acting like they completely solved the game.

I think there’s definitely truth in what you’re saying about race pressure and survivability. Some races fall apart underneath even when they don’t look chaotic on the surface, and the public misses that all the time.

For me, the real challenge is taking good concepts and turning them into actual playable betting situations. That’s where race selection, value, and discipline become everything. A race can be analyzed perfectly and still not be a good bet.

That’s why I keep coming back to simpler questions. Where is the public wrong? Which favorite is vulnerable? Who gets loose? Who gets cooked by the pace? That’s usually where the opportunities are.

Keep up the great work bro!

Tom