Rich and Bill Race 032207

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Originally Posted by froggy

Bill,

You were right in your decisions on the 5th at SA yesterday.
I have gone over the race about 30 times to see what I could learn or unlearn.

1.
I finally found the little figures at the upper right hand corner of each horses screen (EPS,R). I think that you are right in doing APV, I haven't been doing it.

2.
I am finding that when Preceptor II is used for the hides that it works better than going to the energy screen. (About 8% more winners in the top two.)

3.
Eliminate the two lowest EPS the 2 and 4.
Use Preceptor II and hide the 7, 8, and 9.

4.
We are now down to the 5, 1, 6, 3. In that order.

5.
Now I have just proved that I can get the winner the day after the race.
I plan to try it ahead of time today.

Thanks for the lesson Bill. I needed it.

Froggy

Hi froggy
what your doing seems like a solid plan
I suppose I could save a little trouble and use the Earnings Per Start
numbers instead of calculating the APV CR
but in my head The work of looking at the W P S and earnings in the current and past year are giving nme more of a feel for each horse

looking at a figure of $1234 EPS is OK
but entering o wins 6 seconds 2 thirds and earnings of $21000
in a race today with a purse value of $47000 tells me this horse might
be in trouble with a .64 APV and 90 CR
Does that make sense??

Anyway as long as you get the winner
Thats the cool thing
GS
Bill