Starting Over

[NWearner]

Originally Posted by shoeless

NWearner,You have a lot of great insight and also willing to share it Im glad you came on board here.How do you suggest using QSP\postional pace with the pace ratings?I get confused using QSP to see if race setsup early or late.It sounds like an interesting idea.Also for 2 horse betting what value should you be looking for?Let's say Im starting with a 200 bank and goint to invest 10% of it a race.Jeff

Shoeless,

Thanks. I'm glad I came aboard here too. There is lots of exchanging of info and no drama. That is the way things should be. You actually know me from other boards (I once loaned you some Handicapping Magic tapes to listen to because you were curious about them - I totally trusted you to return them and you proved to be 100% a standup person).

When you're looking at QSP, use them to determine how the race will play out. For example, if you see a lot of 0, 2, 3, 3, 1, 4 type of QSPs, it will be easy to see that there just isn't much pace to the race. You can pretty much determine that deep closers have no chance, but that your EP and P runners will benefit. If, on the other hand, you see horses with QSPs of 8, 7, 6, there is plenty of pace and your S and PS types have a chance. If you see a horse that is 5, 6 or 7 in QSP and the next horse has a QSP 2 points less than the highest, you may have an lone early horse. The main thing is to use the QSP to determine how the race will play out.

Once you have done that, you can use your pace ratings to determine whether a horse will be close enough to the pace, whatever the pace is, to be a contender. If, for example, you estimate that a horse will be 7 lengths off the lead based on your EPR, and the track profile shows that a horse should be within 3 lengths at the 2nd call, is that a horse a logical contender? The answer is maybe....it depends on how you think the race will play out, but it probably is not.

The trick is to use the info you have in a logical way. In general, I think positional pace is more important than pace ratings, but pace ratings still have plenty of use in contender selection/elimination.

Oh, and by the way, if you have a $200 bankroll don't bet 10% of it in one race. It won't take much to wipe it out. If you are playing this size of a bankroll stick to $4 wagers (2% of bank) if betting one horse or 5% of bank if betting two horses as Schmidt/Hambleton described in their book. This is probably too high of a percentage, but at least a $200 bankroll is easy to replenish if it disappears.