Poly Track Pace Lines For 'Capping CD

[lsosa54]

What are some thoughts on using poly pace lines in handicapping the Oaks and Derby? My concern is not so much whether Sartin programs can handle them well - I believe they can. It's more from: do I use a poly pace line to represent what a horse might do on Churchill's surface?

There may be some clues in the workouts. If a horse is working well over the CD surface like let's say, Colonel John, who shows 2 very nice 5f breezes, it may be logical to think that he should run well over the surface, even though all his races have been on the different SoCal poly surfaces. He has run well on all of them.

The real tricky call is what to do with a horse like Pyro. Do we excuse his last as a result of his only poly race OR is this last race truly a problem? He really didn't run a step. His CD workout is uninspiring but his KEE & FG workouts showing were also that way.

You can say the pace in the Bluegrass was slow but he closed like a monster off a slower pace at FG. The raw FFR's of both races (not counting beaten lengths) were 36 & 3/5th's and 30 - a 98 and a 97 on the FFR chart - basically equal. The DTV's were 10 and 8, so no big difference.

Would appreciate hearing some opinions as whatever strategy one takes in this area could win or lose the races. Thanks.