Limits of the Methodology?/ Cheap races

[clore1030]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Hi Jeff Yes I agree
This is just my opinion and many might think i'm nuts

Sometimes horse players seem to think that some horses
have trainers and some don't.
I think people maybe not to this extreme but something like the racing secretary goes to the barn and pulls 8 horses from their stalls and sends them to the starting gate , only some of them have trainers,
like entertainers some have agents and managers and some just are
from central casting. Just extras if you like.
I am a lot more convinced that its the match up and the horse that runs the race. But each horse in the race has a trainer and a jockey and an owner
the trainers are working against the other trainers They have to
have jockeys who are working to be the best to get more wins
and therefore more salary they are working against the other horses jockey
The owners want to win so they expect the trainer to win
The #9 horse put it all together A strong earner In form with a smart move by the trainer
The other connections in the race did what they could in this race
but It was just number nines day.

Bill

I look at it this way - if the trainer knew he was going to win, the horse would not have been 40/1. Knowing you're going to win is found money, and human greed or need in such a situation would have one bringing a truckload of money to the window.

I don't know the size of the pools involved, so for argument's sake, let's say he had 100 bucks on it at 40/1. Even if a 200 wager would have knocked it down to 30/1, he would have done it if it were "a sure thing."

The trainer can perhaps have thought that he had a good chance, or a better than usual chance, but how many other trainers in the race had the same thought?

Can the trainer predict traffic trouble? Or a bad start out of the gate. Or being carried wide? Maybe his horse stepped on a safety pin that morning.

There are no sure things, not at 40/1 or 1/10.