4/18 Keeneland 8th 5.5f turf puzzler - Pace and Cap

Bill Lyster · 04-18-2009, 04:02 AM

very interesting race: (before scratches analysis)

Basics: #11 (an E) has an 11 class rating; the next best is #5 (SP or S) with a 7.

If you take the best turf lines from these two and the rest of the field ignoring pace you get the 5 and 11 with separation in the BL to the next one.

If you Match the race, there are 5 or 6 Early horses 3 or 4 Early pressers, 2 pressers, two SP and 2 S types.

It looks to me like the earlies have to chase fractions of 22 and 44. This eliminates all but the 4 and 9, with the 9 possibly being an E/P. 4 needs an open lead and won't get it in this field. 9 has run historically one or just off the lead, but it looks like an OTE race to me. The 11 has been off 286 days and has never faced this stiff a pace. The 5 has faced this pace at the first fraction, runs from fifth or sixth and closed to win.

The 2, a presser, ran a tandem vs the 9 and this race had a marginally faster pace than the race I chose for the 5 (line 4). While the 5 shows more lengths gained and more horses passed than the 2, the 2 was moving from 3rd to 2nd without gaining lengths but this horse should benefit from all the earlies collapsing in front of him. With the size of this field it may get down to luck in finding the right hole wherever that is, so my Matchup horses are the 5 and 2. The ML on the 2 is 20/1 vs 3/1 on the 5; 4/1 on 9 and 5/2 on the huge Class horse the 11.

So Huge class or matchup. Either way the 5 is a bet. Any comments?

Thanks,

Bill

04-18-2009, 04:02 AM	#1
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,509	4/18 Keeneland 8th 5.5f turf puzzler very interesting race: (before scratches analysis) Basics: #11 (an E) has an 11 class rating; the next best is #5 (SP or S) with a 7. If you take the best turf lines from these two and the rest of the field ignoring pace you get the 5 and 11 with separation in the BL to the next one. If you Match the race, there are 5 or 6 Early horses 3 or 4 Early pressers, 2 pressers, two SP and 2 S types. It looks to me like the earlies have to chase fractions of 22 and 44. This eliminates all but the 4 and 9, with the 9 possibly being an E/P. 4 needs an open lead and won't get it in this field. 9 has run historically one or just off the lead, but it looks like an OTE race to me. The 11 has been off 286 days and has never faced this stiff a pace. The 5 has faced this pace at the first fraction, runs from fifth or sixth and closed to win. The 2, a presser, ran a tandem vs the 9 and this race had a marginally faster pace than the race I chose for the 5 (line 4). While the 5 shows more lengths gained and more horses passed than the 2, the 2 was moving from 3rd to 2nd without gaining lengths but this horse should benefit from all the earlies collapsing in front of him. With the size of this field it may get down to luck in finding the right hole wherever that is, so my Matchup horses are the 5 and 2. The ML on the 2 is 20/1 vs 3/1 on the 5; 4/1 on 9 and 5/2 on the huge Class horse the 11. So Huge class or matchup. Either way the 5 is a bet. Any comments? Thanks, Bill Attached Images