Speculator Modeling Workbook

[Ted Craven]

Here is an Excel spreadsheet, courtesy of Richie Pizzicara, for keeping track of various factors used in Speculator.

Speculator Modeling Workbook

It uses different tabs for different distances and surfaces, and it separates out Stakes Sprint and Stakes Route distances into separate tabs.

Enter the factor ranks from winners' pacelines onto the appropriate tab, by distance and surface.

Make one of these for each track you work; name it for example: AQI-model.xls, SA_model.xls, or whatever.

The E/L Rank column (E) is an innovation which seeks to rank the Early or Late magnitude of the E/L Difference. Here's how Richie says he makes ranks, and it differs for Sprints versus Routes:

For Sprints: the most Early is ranked 1, the next most Early is ranked 2, etc

For Routes and Turf: the most Late is ranked 1, the next most Late is ranked 2, etc.

Others may have a different approach to E/L ranking, but tinker with it and see what works.

Ted