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NewPace Discussion Forum (old) An old discussion forum for users of Dave Schwartz' NewPace (as implemented in RDSS 2.0) circa 2011

 
 
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Old 07-26-2011, 03:48 PM   #1
SilentRun
Grade 1 Aspiree
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 678
Tracking The Early Dominant Horse

I am interested in finding out the profit potential of the Early Dominant horse as to WPS betting.
I used only those E/L 2.0 races that I also ran thru RDSS using the following criteria:

Dirt sprints except 7F. Dirt routes: 8F to 8.3F only
Turf sprints only.
Early Dominance starts at 56%.
My betting is: $2 win, $4 place and $12 show.
I have only 22 races that meet the above so I am presenting a 20 race cycle.

As you can see from the spreadsheet data below the WPS resulted in a 17.8%
return. There were 6 races out of 20 that the early dominant horse won but at some nice prices. Also there was some nice show prices that help kick up my WPS return and of course it is only 20 races. For the races of 7/17 MNR R9 and ASD R5 for 7/06/11 the early dominant horse was out of the money.
Those horses were also not in my 5 top RDSS contenders so for the next cycle any early dominant horse must be within my top 5 of RDSS. I also didn't eliminate low odds dominant favorites.

In any case the results of this first cycle is favorable and I thought that this would be of interest.

Ernie
Attached Files
File Type: xls Dom1.xls (13.5 KB, 93 views)
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