NewPace 507 race Study - Pace and Cap

SilentRun · 08-12-2011, 01:24 AM

Bill,

This is an excellent presentation. I am primarily interested in coming up with an exacta strategy and......................
Your study clearly shows that you are burning money by simply boxing the 4 New Pace contenders in an Exacta or Trifecta for that matter. That is a positive conclusion right there...don't do it ! Also the close win% between L1 and L2 as was mentioned in a previous post surprised me...I expected L1 to dominate.

I would like to see subsequent studies showing the results of boxing 3 New Pace horses based on elimination criteria. There was a study posted ( small sample from MNR) which showed a positive R.O.I. if you eliminated the low odds favorite. I think that this could be a positive strategy but only after at least 1500 races.

If you keep the low odds favorite and toss another horse what would be the results ? Generalized criteria could be used as what you stated in your study such as 75/95/20:1. But individual judgement calls will take us out of the black box area.

To me this is an excellent start but there has to be more specific studies with a reliable sample size.

Ernie

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08-12-2011, 01:24 AM	#12
SilentRun Grade 1 Aspiree Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 678	Bill, This is an excellent presentation. I am primarily interested in coming up with an exacta strategy and...................... Your study clearly shows that you are burning money by simply boxing the 4 New Pace contenders in an Exacta or Trifecta for that matter. That is a positive conclusion right there...don't do it ! Also the close win% between L1 and L2 as was mentioned in a previous post surprised me...I expected L1 to dominate. I would like to see subsequent studies showing the results of boxing 3 New Pace horses based on elimination criteria. There was a study posted ( small sample from MNR) which showed a positive R.O.I. if you eliminated the low odds favorite. I think that this could be a positive strategy but only after at least 1500 races. If you keep the low odds favorite and toss another horse what would be the results ? Generalized criteria could be used as what you stated in your study such as 75/95/20:1. But individual judgement calls will take us out of the black box area. To me this is an excellent start but there has to be more specific studies with a reliable sample size. Ernie