Rdss2 & NewPace

[Ted Craven]

Richard,

If I understand the VDC rank recording protocol correctly from the email you sent me, you would have recorded the winner above as VDC rank 2 even though there were 2 VDC rank 1's above it. And if the winner had been horse #1, you would have recorded the winner's VDC as rank #1, despite there having been 2 rank 1's.

What this means, if I understand correctly, is that out of the 200 races in your study, there were (likely) more than 200 horses with a VDC rank1, so the hit rate of VDC rank 1 was actually 83 out of 200+ rank 1's to choose from, depending on how many rank 1 ties there were. And likely the same for rank 2 and rank 3 at least . Did I understand you correctly?

It has been a long-challenged, oft-asked question: why are there VDC ties. The answer as always: to elevate deserving horses who otherwise rank poorer on the basis of weighted line score (i.e. BL/BL) alone.

The above discussions on treatment for betting purposes versus study purposes, I think, answer how to actually make use of VDC.

If I misunderstood your method, please do let me know.

cheers,

Ted