MODELING - Does it matter?

[For The Lead]

Here is a handicapping statistic I keep and the results of that statistic for the current month of January.
It has a dollar net of $1.85 based on a single horse bet. Not too impressive, is it?
At this point the only surface that is not included is turf.

It seems many people (not all) only model on the basis of ‘distance and surface’. Well, as you can see the $1.85 dollar net is all inclusive except for turf, so let’s take a deeper look at this. I’ll break these races down by race type.

ST (stake races).................= $1.50 dollar net
AL(allowance race).............= $0.58 dollar net
SA (starter hcp races).........= $1.27 dollar net
MS (maiden special weight)..=$0.48 dollar net
MC (maiden claiming)..........= $1.13 dollar net
OC (optional claiming).........= $1.94 dollar net

We started with a dollar net of $1.85 and except for the 'OC' which is $1.94 (just .09 higher) these are terrible, but if they are terrible then something had to be good. It was.

CL (claiming races)...= $2.46 dollar net
I have taken a dollar net that is much better than average and yet still a loser at $1.85 and found something that has a dollar net of $2.46 or an ROI of +23%, just by breaking down the races by race type.

But let’s take an even closer look. What happens if we break this down by sex?
CL/males.....= $2.18
CL/females..= $2.83

Both are winners, but I like $2.83 a lot better than $2.18.

Like I said at the start, I only excluded turf, so let’s see how this does on dirt and artificial surfaces.
Dirt........= $2.43
Artificial..= $2.51

Not much difference there

Let’s take a look at some extremes with different tracks.
Track A...= $1.41(lowest)
Track B...= $3.39(highest)

Enough said there.

How about distances?
Sprints...= $2.00
Routes...= $3.22

Enough said there as well.

Oh, remember that 'OC' with a $1.94 dollar net? Let's take another look at that. I'll break it down by sex.

OC/males......=$2.39
OC/females...=$1.23

You just never know if you don't look.

So you see what you can do with something that initially appears to be a loser when you break races down into various categories.

If you aren’t modeling, maybe you should be.
If you are only modeling distance and surface, maybe you should reconsider you approach to modeling.

Just some food for thought.