Random Thoughts

[vderdak]

I thought I would just post some Random Thoughts.

For those not familiar with Thomas Sowell, a well known economist with several great economic books under his belt and some down to earth observations about people, government, and life in general he writes from time to time what he calls Random Thoughts at Townhall.com so I thought I would do the same about what I've observed on Pace and Cap.

These are just my thoughts only but it appears to me many handicappers are following rdss blindly, the numbers, without out looking at the big picture, trying to solve the puzzle with just one slice of the pie, and not using other valuable information in conjunction with rdss. That's a hard row to hoe.

I don't care if a horse has all the numbers, looks best from every angle, has great odds, but if the trainer is 0-7 at the specific sprint distance at the specific track and the jockey he puts on him is 1-10 with him there is no advantage there, to me you are fighting an up hill battle betting this horse.

I never hear any handicapping thoughts with regard to the trainer at all, not even in passing, I understand the site is about rdss but I never hear the trainer mentioned at all. I suspect this is because of the weakness with which track master supplies this information to us and the methodology which is the horse runs the race, not the trainer or the jockey but these days are not 20 years ago when you could get away without factoring in additional information. The trainer feeds the horse, exercises the horse, enters the horse, picks the jockey, and most handicappers on here act as if he doesn't exist.

The other area I don't hear a lot about is the heart factor of a horse, he many not have the best numbers on rdss but if he likes to win, I will take him any day over a horse who has all the numbers but likes to run only but seldom wins. It's one of the first factors I look at after the conditions of the race, does he win? You see it all the time, a horse with 6 wins out of 12, verse others with only 1 or 2, trust me, the 6 win horse has an advantage regardless of the what the numbers say.

I believe the starting point is to first read the race conditions like FTL has spelled out many times. Who does it favor, who does it not. James Quinn said a long time ago to just compare one horse to the other is sloppy handicapping, start first with those horses favored by the conditions, throw out the rest and then start your comparative handicapping. I think for many on here, MYSELF INCLUDED AS WELL , I'VE BEEN JUST AS GUILTY, we do alot of sloppy handicapping. I know Ted has posted in the past about running all the horses numbers to see if you overlooked a horse, that's an individual decision, but for me if I can't get it down to the contenders I don't understand the race enough to bet it, it's telling me to pass personally.

With regards to all this research and testing about getting the contenders down to 3, 4, or 5 horses it seems the odds board is already doing this for you. William Scott spelled this out years ago in his book which I still suspect is true today; the top three choices win 67% of all races, the top four 80% or there abouts so if you'd like you can make it a 3 or 4 horse race every time. He built a whole system on this next factor, one of the top three odds horses will finish 2nd or better 90% of the time, he said what was remarkable about this statistic is to have the high 90% number it can't deviate to much which of course makes sense. His deal was to bet win and place and win 2 out of the 3 playable races, something for the mathematically minded on here to investigate if they choose to with result charts, does the number still hold true?

For those looking for long shots I also do what Mark Cramer suggested a long time ago and has helped me hit many a long shot, I ask this question for every single race - which horse is the strange horse in the race, the one who doesn't look to belong. An only dirt runner in a turf race with all other turf horses,, a route horse in with all sprinters and etc. You would be surprised at the number of high odd winners you get by asking this simple question for every race, a hint, the trainer entered him in the race because he is either fishing and has no idea what to do with the horse anymore, this is true most of the time, out of options so to speak, or he is sneaky crazy.

In closing I believe in rdss, I love it's format and ease of use, it's the foundation the house is built on so to speak but my windows are open as well to let other information flow in for making betting decisions today, just some random thoughts I wanted to share.