The "Mysterious" case of Guyana Princess

[Jeebs]

To quote a friend on another message board after this race:

Those kind of horses are the type to avoid. The ones who lose contact with the field then suck up. No kind of pace gets them home. Guyana made it into the Super as is her calling.

Based on my match-up, I felt that Guyana Princess was disadvantaged in her previous race, chasing a loose-on-the-lead winner (Read the Research) that happens to be in this race. However, there is enough speed here to keep RTR honest, so I tossed GP's tandem effort against RTR and tried finding a paceline that was NOT an off-track or the AQU Inner (two turns). I landed on the 10th and final paceline, a one-turn mile at AQU main, against a pace that matches up with today's.

So the pace doesn't develop as I thought. Our speedster RTR from last time reverts to a presser mode attacking 22.3/45/1:09.4 -- a faster pace than the projected match-up. GP loped along in the rear, losing touch with the field at the half, before making a belated bid, sucking up past others late.

My question is whether I should have "reached" that far back to find a representative paceline, or just based on the horse's "history" of finding a way to "suck" up late, whether I should have even selected a paceline at all, even if she had some + and (+) races.