Route Races

[Seven Furlongs]

Hello,

I used to post under Zip Zap, but due to a hiatus as a result of personal matters I decided to get back in to handicapping the races. I decided to change user names because I forgot the old one.

I have been trying to make sense of the races the last little while and I have decided to return to the perspective that makes the most sense to me - The Hat's Match-Up. I have had a little success with it, as I nabbed the 2nd race at Aqueduct today and the 7th and 8th races yesterday while betting 1 horse, but what I have found to be a struggle with re-acquainting myself with the match-up is that I can't make sense of most route races, either dirt or turf.

I have done Mind's Eye 1 and will start Mind's Eye 2 today, in addition to reviewing the Red Manual and the Five Steps. My procedure is as follows:

-scan the pps to find the early horse(s) that will set the 1st call.
-do the same for the 2nd call.
-project a pace from the 1st and 2nd calls.
-use that pace to determine the likely contenders.
-from those contenders look to see if the race runs early or other than early.


What I have trouble with in route races is that there is less of a likelihood of a front runner as you so readily find in sprints. Because of this, I find it hard to get a good sense of what the 1st and 2nd calls project to be. Also, I struggle to adjust what a 1 turn mile pace line would look like in a 2 turn route. As for the turf, I find the pacelines to appear to be a bit more erratic, which makes it difficult at times to find a secure 1st and 2nd call that can be projected.

Any advice on the use of the Match-Up and routes would be appreciated.