What do you make of this ?

[Bill V.]

When in a discussion about projecting the pace of race
recently, I thought about all the races I have watched over many years at Parx.

I thought that I had noticed something.
I started keeping track of the pace of race from all the races at Parx.
Right now I have 170 race for 3 + male at the 1 mile distance.

Here is what I have seen. It seems to me that the longer the race goes the
less likely the splits will fall into a range of 1 from the average.

For example at the second call, the average pace of race for 3 + males is
113.4
So I went and sorted the second call pace of race to find how
many times in those 170 race the pace of race was between 113 and 114.
This turned out to happen 74 times in the 170 races

The grid below shows the results of all the splits and final time
using the same measure of within 1 of the average.

According to my chart, The first number ( around the first turn at Parx )
shows an average of 24.5 The range of 24-25 shows the highest percent
of the splits, Yet final time shows the least amount of races within 1 of the average. on 40 of 170

My idea is based on what Doc said. That a 5000 claimer runs the early pace
just as well as a champion. The difference is the 3rd fraction.

Your thoughts ?






Thanks
Bill

"Life is so simple and beautiful when you live in the present moment. what greater gift can you give then presence ? Pure presence is from the heart"