Calculating TPR

[Bill V.]

Hey Bill, sorry to take so long to get back to this, been working.
I have been reading and can not find the answer, can you help me out.
thanks
Don

Hi Don

Thanks for taking the time to do the work to learn
I hope this helps you. Please read what Alf wrote

Originally Posted by PassRace

Horse F
Early speed horse.
ALF

Alf has it correct


Now we are just using Phase 1 so..
The most important step is to pick your pace lines.
Remember in phase 1 we always rate the last line first but that is another matter. For now lets just go with what I show here.


Step 1. Look at the running styles. Are there any E7 or E8's ?
Yes - Horse F F= fast
Of horses A B C D E, who is a EP ?
Horse D
The other's are pressers. They will only win if the early pressure falls apart.
And they are close enough at the second call.

Step 2 is to calculate the EPR LPR and TPR but we don't need to do any of that or do any of the track to track or daily track variant adjustments. RDSS2 does it all for us so lets just look at the readouts.

Who is your # 1 EPR horse ?
Horse F with a 89.5
This is a sprint race, Actually its 5.5 furlongs
The EP readout is the second call. So horse F will be in the lead at the second call.
Who has the second best EP rating ?
Horse E with a 88.4 .
Each point = 1 length so at the second call horse F still has a 1 length advantage over horse E and even bigger leads over A, B, C, and D.
This is why I told you there is no way horse C could go wire to wire
How is it going to out break horse F ?

Now there are more tools available just on this screen
Horse A has a 5 point advantage over horse F in TPR
but in Phase 1 any horse within 5 points of the top TPR horse is
a contender.

Lets look at the early late difference graph.

All the horses use there energy on the early side
So the only way horse E could over take horse F is if horse
F used too much energy to get the lead at the EP point
(the second call )

Horse F is a lone E-8
Just by what we see on the readouts there was no other early pressure
besides horse E,
Look at how horse E uses its energy almost the same as horse F
11 for F
9 for E
So were will horse E get the energy to over take horse F ?
This is in the advanced concepts chapter in the original Pace Makes The Race.

Lastly although total energy is not part of phase 1 Ted has added it to the TPR screen and its very helpful. Every horse runs about a 166 total energy
total energy is the sum of the 3 fractions so these horses all run pretty much the same way.

I hope this makes it clear This will be much easier for you once you get more practice with Phase 1. But it will all depend on the pace lines you use to rate the horses.
Also it would have been much easier if you knew the distance was 5.5 furlongs and that horse F was in post 1 !!!

Please check out this post from FTL about Early horses on the inside

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9406