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#4 |
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The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Thank You Mark
Richie
Whenever I am struggling or come back after a break I find my pace line selections need little freshness, that is I go back to basics, This is from one of my favorite manuals I think Doc would approve going back to line 3 Its not a terrible line, Its not a all time best because I see a 71 ASR at the bottom, Its only 69 days old Line 2 seems like too high a class N4 Line 1 is bad but I see a workout since that race 5 days ago which is a plus for a cheap horse Here is what I like to go back to From The Howard Sartin manual The Dynamics of Incremental Velocity Page 16-17 Pacelines "Appropriate Pace Line selection is essential to success in utilizing the Dynamics of Incremental Velocity. I say appropriate rather than right or wrong because they are morality terms. Appropriate means a line that represents a contender's true ability and running style when IN FORM. It should be a line where it ran competitively against the kind of horses it will face today. Since this work is an overview of the subject at hand, we will not go into detail in the manner ofpaceline selection. I will, however,offer some guide lines 1. Avoid using a horse's BEST line unless it was RECENT ( within 40 days) 2. Avoid using lines from Maiden Wins unless todays race is carded for Non-Winners of one except maiden or claiming 3. Never use a truly BAD paceline.You're totally defeating the purpose of handicapping which is to select winners 4. DO NOT USE TROUBLE LINES 5. Let a horses AVERAGE PURSE VALUE and or Class Factor determine how far back you go for a line. 6. The concept of last race recency of a line is exaggerated Looking at a sequence of 1000 races that we actually won, our average pace line used was 2.35 This simply means the average was closest to the 2nd race back, but often it was the 3rd race back. The last race was used 42% of the time. Learning to select the proper paceline is an art that comes only with practice. Doing it over and over is by far the best means of mastering the procedure" |
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