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| General Discussion General Horse Racing Discussion |
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#1 | |
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The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Quote:
SA was once again fast on Sunday and Early positional dominated, The races also were extremely formful.The three lowest morning line horses won 7 of the 9 races The lowest morning line horse won 5 times the 2nd lowest 1 time the 3rd lowest 1time |
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#2 |
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The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Most recent SA Model - Profile 20 races
Last 20 races SA
Last edited by Bill V.; 01-10-2017 at 02:45 PM. Reason: cleaner screen shot |
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#3 | |
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Grade 1
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: the great race place
Posts: 205
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Quote:
Hey Bill, Is your profile a mix of sprint and route races ? Thank you, Paul link |
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#4 |
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The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Last
Hey Paul
The last 20 races, So that would be 9 races Sunday, 9 Saturday and final 2 races Friday , I have a master model - profile spreadsheet which is every race everyday. Once I enter the race on the master, I then copy and paste to specialized spreadsheets which are broken down to distance , surface and maiden/non maiden. Eventually I can break it down to sex, age, once I have a big enough sample of a race type . What I am showing here is from the master spreadsheet , and the most recent 20 races All . Bill |
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#5 |
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The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Should
I guess I should of captured the race date info on the screen shot!
The last row (bottom) is the most recent race So here that would be race 9 from Sunday And the top row would be race 7 from Friday Bill |
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#6 |
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Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
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SA Profile
Bill are the EPR LPR and Tpr rankings in your SA profile all taken from the last pace line OR do they come from the lines you choose after you get your contenders?
Thanks Rmath |
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#7 | |
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The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Quote:
in the tough loss of mom.<3 Dick, What I do is, I take the numbers for my Model from the paceline I used. For the profile I use the result charts . remember the Profile is what the track is doing, the Model is based on my handicapping records . Here is an example of how I enter horses onto my profile and model. Lets look at race 6 from Parx yesterday ( a race I won ) and I happen to be looking at when I saw your post, First here is the winner, #3 Red Rocket . I used the last line, or in the spirit of this thread I had auto selected the last line for every horse, and for this horse I stayed with the last line. For my Parx profile - I would first check the results chart I would enter lots of stuff but most important is the date,surface, class, sex age and track condition. Now using the chart, I enter the size of the field, The Position at the EPR or second call and the beaten lengths at the EPR second call. So I would enter for this race for the winner Field 10 Pos2, 2 BL 2 1.0 Now for the model , The model is to show me how I am doing in my handicapping using Phase 1 so here I look at my TPR screen. I enter the RANKING of the winner in EPR, LPR and TPR from the pace line I used. Red Rocket had a 88.5 EPR , 87.9 LPR and 176.4 TPR (I also record the e/l and %Med ) The 88.4 was the 4th best ranked the 87.9 LPR was 3rd best and the 176.4 TPR was the 5th best. So on my model I would show the winner of this race as E4 L 3 T 5 I take the EPR LPR and TPR as well as the Early Late diff and % Med and RS from the pace line I used Now here is an interesting thing. Lets say in a few weeks Red Rocket is in another 6.5 distance race at Parx on a fast track, I then will enter the actual Phase 1 numbers RDSS adjusted the race from yesterday but I will bold face the numbers, Surprisingly Since RDSS has already adjusted the paceline I used , which was 5.5 furlongs to today's distanceof 6.5, The actual numbers I will eventually see, are very often very close to the paceline numbers, This is why i'm confident using the pace line numbers on a daily basis. It is easy and eventually i get a real clear idea of the track i'm workings profile based on the pace line info. |
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