Are most races paceless?

[lostandwon]

FTL, thanks for posing the questions.

Originally Posted by For The Lead

Obviously, you have to start with what constitutes and early horse. When you look at a race, what do you look for in order to determine if a horse is early and will challenge for the lead today?

In looking at a race I look for horse (s) that habitually/routinely run up front at the 1st call. Look left. Like Pook said I look for the color in the pps as viewed through rdss. I want them to be on the lead.

Regardless of if a lone E or many E, I want to see horse(s) on the lead to light up a number that serves as a target for the field to shoot at.

In routes, I do indeed light up 1st fr along with the 2nd even though no corresponding positional call.

All races are challenging, but I find myself unable to visualize and merely guessing (often incorrectly) how the race will run without that target for the field to shoot at.

In regard to the example:
"Let’s look at one example. A few of the paceless races in the match up area have been won either wire to wire or 2nd to wire. These winners will return in other races. Off of their last winning race, would you consider them an early horse? Keep in mind that there will be no indication that the horse beat a paceless field of horses in its’ last race. Since all you will know is that it won in early fashion, will you consider it an early horse and capable of challenging for the lead in today’s race?"

I would not consider them an early horse if they only showed E tendencies in their last race.

I look forward to your comments on Bill L's scenarios as well.