Balancing Position calls with Beaten Lengths - Pace and Cap

THE HAT · 09-24-2006, 05:12 PM

Balancing Position Call With Beaten Lengths

Balancing position call with beaten lengths is not really that difficult, but is
an important phase of understanding The Match Up.

The Sixth Race at Belmont, which was run 09/23/06 is a good example. I
will go through this race, step by step.

First I will establish the pace of today’s Race:

I will use the first two calls of Guns Drawn’s mile race to establish the first and second call. I will not use the Churchill Downs first call of 21.4 on Barbados, because Churchill Downs has a weird first call, but I do use his final time of 110.3 from his last line.

Today’s Projected Pace is: Pace: 22 .2 45.2 110.3

The 3 horse Scratched and I eliminated the 1a, 4, 5, 7, & 8, because they are slower than today’s projected pace. This leaves me with four horses for win consideration.

Here is my analysis of the race:

I used the last line on the 1, 2 & 9, but used the six furlong portion from the third line on the 6 horse. Guns Drawn is the pace horse in the race and will take the lead. The 2 horse should not improve positions, because he does his best in the lead, he will not get the lead today and is eliminated. The 1 horse is one fifth of a second slower than today’s pace and will lose positions and beaten lengths, he is eliminated. The 9 horse will gain one position from fourth to third, but using his beaten lengths he will be third at the second call and his final time is slower than today’s pace, out he goes.

The 6 horse is an outstanding horse, his position will change from fourth to third and with no other horse in front of him he will gain position and beaten lengths and will take the lead at the second call, because his second call is faster than today’s projected pace. Santa Anita is about two fifths of a second faster than Belmont, and after adding the five beaten lengths to the 108.3 he runs a 109.3. I add a couple of fifths to this time for track to track, which makes it 110. He is an Early Presser and will destroy this field.

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09-24-2006, 05:12 PM	#10
THE HAT Grade 2 Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 86	Balancing Position Call With Beaten Lengths Balancing position call with beaten lengths is not really that difficult, but is an important phase of understanding The Match Up. The Sixth Race at Belmont, which was run 09/23/06 is a good example. I will go through this race, step by step. First I will establish the pace of today’s Race: I will use the first two calls of Guns Drawn’s mile race to establish the first and second call. I will not use the Churchill Downs first call of 21.4 on Barbados, because Churchill Downs has a weird first call, but I do use his final time of 110.3 from his last line. Today’s Projected Pace is: Pace: 22 .2 45.2 110.3 The 3 horse Scratched and I eliminated the 1a, 4, 5, 7, & 8, because they are slower than today’s projected pace. This leaves me with four horses for win consideration. Here is my analysis of the race: I used the last line on the 1, 2 & 9, but used the six furlong portion from the third line on the 6 horse. Guns Drawn is the pace horse in the race and will take the lead. The 2 horse should not improve positions, because he does his best in the lead, he will not get the lead today and is eliminated. The 1 horse is one fifth of a second slower than today’s pace and will lose positions and beaten lengths, he is eliminated. The 9 horse will gain one position from fourth to third, but using his beaten lengths he will be third at the second call and his final time is slower than today’s pace, out he goes. The 6 horse is an outstanding horse, his position will change from fourth to third and with no other horse in front of him he will gain position and beaten lengths and will take the lead at the second call, because his second call is faster than today’s projected pace. Santa Anita is about two fifths of a second faster than Belmont, and after adding the five beaten lengths to the 108.3 he runs a 109.3. I add a couple of fifths to this time for track to track, which makes it 110. He is an Early Presser and will destroy this field.