Horizontal And Exotic Bets - My Opinion - Pace and Cap

rdiam · 09-25-2019, 06:05 PM

You are entitled to your opinion, but be aware that it is based on outdated and incorrect information:

To use your poker analogy, would you rather play in a game with no rake where everyone had better poker skills than you, or in a game with a 10% rake where you had better poker skill than everyone else at the table? Sure, you would win more in case 2 if the rake was below 10%, but you are likely to lose in case 1 with a zero rake.

Similarly, there are those on this board (Lt1 and Mitch44 come to mind), who show high proficiency at tracks like PARX with their relatively high takeout, even on win-place-show. As long as their average win % exceeds the win percentage implied by their average odds, they make a profit. In addition, the big rebate syndicates tend to stay away from the high takeouts, so there is less competition in the pools from "smart" money.

The only thing you should be concerned about regarding horizontal bets is whether a win parlay will pay more or less than the pick X. If the parlay pays less (you need to estimate this), you are better off with the horizontal bet since the higher takeout is spread out over multiple races. In addition, many tracks have actually cut the take on P5 to 15% or so, such that many sharp bettors consider this the best bet to make (if your bankroll can withstand the fluctuations).

Regarding verticals, you need to be able to eliminate enough combinations so that your win percentage exceeds the odds implied by your average payoff. The higher take makes it harder to do this, but not impossible.

To sum up, the size of the take (rake) determines only how difficult it is to be profitable making certain kinds of bets. Of course, the lower the better. But be careful what you ask for: a lower take invites the large rebate syndicates into the pool, which will cut your average odds and also make it more difficult to be profitable. And your chart does not include the horizontal bets that actually have a lower take than WPS. Bottom line, you should bet the pool or pools where you think you have an edge (see Betting with an Edge by Mike Maloney), and not focus on the take, which is only part of the equation to show a profit.

Richard

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09-25-2019, 06:05 PM	#2
rdiam Grade 1 Join Date: Sep 2016 Posts: 607	You are entitled to your opinion, but be aware that it is based on outdated and incorrect information: To use your poker analogy, would you rather play in a game with no rake where everyone had better poker skills than you, or in a game with a 10% rake where you had better poker skill than everyone else at the table? Sure, you would win more in case 2 if the rake was below 10%, but you are likely to lose in case 1 with a zero rake. Similarly, there are those on this board (Lt1 and Mitch44 come to mind), who show high proficiency at tracks like PARX with their relatively high takeout, even on win-place-show. As long as their average win % exceeds the win percentage implied by their average odds, they make a profit. In addition, the big rebate syndicates tend to stay away from the high takeouts, so there is less competition in the pools from "smart" money. The only thing you should be concerned about regarding horizontal bets is whether a win parlay will pay more or less than the pick X. If the parlay pays less (you need to estimate this), you are better off with the horizontal bet since the higher takeout is spread out over multiple races. In addition, many tracks have actually cut the take on P5 to 15% or so, such that many sharp bettors consider this the best bet to make (if your bankroll can withstand the fluctuations). Regarding verticals, you need to be able to eliminate enough combinations so that your win percentage exceeds the odds implied by your average payoff. The higher take makes it harder to do this, but not impossible. To sum up, the size of the take (rake) determines only how difficult it is to be profitable making certain kinds of bets. Of course, the lower the better. But be careful what you ask for: a lower take invites the large rebate syndicates into the pool, which will cut your average odds and also make it more difficult to be profitable. And your chart does not include the horizontal bets that actually have a lower take than WPS. Bottom line, you should bet the pool or pools where you think you have an edge (see Betting with an Edge by Mike Maloney), and not focus on the take, which is only part of the equation to show a profit. Richard