Breeders Cup Post Analysis

[Bill Lyster]

The Breeders Cup is the year end two day meet up that show cases the best of young and older horses alike. So this post will cover the first day in which all the races are for two year olds.

First I am going to cover all the turf races, 6-8-10 which have come to be dominated by foreign horses almost exclusively. How do we find a winner when there are no races run in the US? The answer is to pay attention to the TM sort in the New Pace tab in RDSS.

Race 6 was a 5.5f race for 2 YO. In a field of 12, 9 were foreign horses. The top 4 finishers were all foreign. What is unique in this race is that 8 of the horses were fillies and only 4 were colts. When you look at the PPs under the Age of the races if a filly ran against fillies, the race is labeled 2f, but if it ran against both fillies and colts the race is labeled just "2".

It is of interest to note that the top 4 finishers all had more than 4 races coming into this race, with the top 4 having 5-5-6-6 races. In fact of the three 2yo races last week ALL win and place horses had 5 or more races under their belt.

For each horse I recorded the number of Graded races it had run. If it won I circled the graded race # and if it ran 2nd or 3rd but was within 2 lengths, I just wrote down the graded #. I also noted the highest speed rating run by that horse except if it was its maiden win.

There are not many G1 races for two year olds until later in the year, so I did not eliminate horses that had not run in a G1, and most of the entrants had run in G2 or G3 races. So I preferred horses with circled G1, G2 or G3 races. Only 7 of the 12 horses in this race had one or more circled races. They were the 1-3-4-5-9-10-11 and 12. The winning order was 3-11-5-9

The top NP horses in the TM sort were the 3-6-8-1-11 and their TM numbers were 117 (3)-116-116-114 (11)-114. The show 5 horse TM was 105, the 4th horse, 9 was 104. When horses have not run in the US, there will be no ratings in the NP sort if you chose the adjusted ratings. The only 3 horses with US rating s had 87-84 and 83 adjusted ratings, and NO I do not know how to calibrate the TM ratings to the adjusted ratings, but you could compare the final placings of the 10-4-13 horses to the lower valued TM horses and MAYBE produce a working number.

The winning 3 was a filly who had beaten males twice, but not in graded races. However it ran second in two G2 races and had won a G3. The place #11 had run a close third in two G2 races and 1 G3 race. The show horse, the 5 was the only horse to win a G1 race.

So the top 4 finishers had good races in G2, G3 and G1 races, all had 5 or more races and the win place horses were top 3 NP TM horses.

Next post will be for race 8

[Bill Lyster]

Race 8 is the Juv Fillies Turf.

Like the other 2 turf races on Friday the top 4 places were won by European two year olds. 8 of the 14 entrants were Euros. Many of the fillies entered had run against males and done so successfully more than once.

The win and place horses had 8 and 5 races. The winning #9 with 8 races had won 5 graded races vs males! and had never finished worse than 2nd in any race. The place horse had won a grade 1 and a grade 2 and placed up close in another grade 1 and 2 grade 3s all against males. The win and placce horses were the only multiple graded stakes winners in the field.

3 other horses had more than 5 starts, but only one Grade 3 win among them. The show and 4th place horses had 2 and 3 races respectively. The 4th place horse had won a Grade 1 race against males and place well vs males in a G3 race. The show horse #3 only raced vs. fillies, won a Grade 3 in second start.

The New Pace TM ranks were 118 for the winner #9 and the place horse, #1, there was a 115 (#10 finished 4th) and the #6 had a 114. The next group were all 105 or less.

On to race 10 next

[Bill Lyster]

12 horses; 6 Foreign, all colts.

Of the top 3, the 4-10-2, were all foreign, except the 12. Six horses, all foreign had 5 or more races, among them the 4-10-2. The 12 had only 2 races.

The TM ratings for the top 4 in order were, 107, 115, 109, and 75 for the 12 who was the fifth rated US horse in the adjusted NP sort. The also ran Euros rated from 106 to 100.

The winner had won 2 G2 and 1 G3 and finished well in another G2; The place horse after its maiden win ran well in a G3 and then 3 consecutive G1's, one of which it won. The show horse, #2 was the only other horse to win more than one graded race, those being 2 G3 races.

Aiden and Joseph O'Brien were the trainers of the win and place horses.

Tomorrow, the first day dirt races.

[DanBoals]

Hi Bill

I love the way you are working on an objective system to qualify and rate foreign horses. With the kentucky derby, this is always my biggest headache. I do not know why someone in foreign lands doesn't do time splits unless it is just too profitable, so they keep it to themselves.

Dan

[Bill Lyster]

This is the Juvenile fillies and there were NO foreign entries. Unlike many of the foreign turf entrants none of the 12 entrants had more than 4 races, in fact only 2 horses had 4 races, neither placed in the top 4.

The winning horse was the 10-5-8-6 in that order. Only 4 horses in this race had won a graded stake, the 2, 5, 8, 10. Three of these filled out the top 3 spots. The 2 won a G2, the 5 and 10 had won a G1, as had the unplaced 11. The 3-6-7-9 had not done well in graded races. The 6 and 9 were still maidens.

None of the US fillies had run against males in any of their races.

The TM New Pace speed ratings were the 7 (96), the 5 and 10 (both 92) and the 1, 8 and 11 (all 90). The Early NP was 10-2 and the Late was 8-1.

The adjusted speed ratings were the 10 (84), the 3 (81), the 2 and 8 (both 80), and the 5 (79). The NP early was7-5 and the late was 8-1.

In this race you get the win and place with the TM ratings. And the top 3 all won graded races with the winner having won all three of its races, the first two of which would be considered BIG WIns widening lead thru the finish.
Also, the win and place horses were 2 of the 3 that won grade 1 races.

[Bill Lyster]

BC Race 9, BC Juvenile

Only six horses running. The race order was 5-6-3-7.

Only one horse had 4 starts.
All but the 1 had run in graded races and the 3-5-6 had won a graded race.

The 5 and 6 had won a G1, the five won two G1 and a G3 in its 3 starts. The 7 had run well in a G1.

The New Pace TM sort was the 5 (105), the 7 and 8, (both 98), the 6 (92), the 3 (90) and the 1 (84).

The adjusted sort was 5 (89), the 6 and 7 (both 83), the 1 (82) and the 3 and 8 (both 79).

Once again, the horses that won the best races, G1, finished top 2.

[Bill Lyster]

It will take me longer to go thru the Saturday races, but a long time ago, one of the old guys told me that Grade 1 races are won by Grade 1 horses. For the most part that held true on Saturday as did the Euro invasion.

The Saturday races obviously were for mature horses so most of them had at least 9 races in the PPs. I marked for further scrutiny any horse that had won a G1 race anywhere in the PPs. In only the 11th race was the winner a horse that had not previously won a grade 1 race!

Odd note for Saturday of the nine races the winners came from the first three post positions in 7 of them. The 2 YO races did not conform to that.

Also the Euro winners on turf all had 4 or more races whereas the US contingent rarely had more than three races. I get the impression that the Euros start their good 2's earlier than here in the states.

[Bill Lyster]

Originally Posted by DanBoals

Hi Bill

I love the way you are working on an objective system to qualify and rate foreign horses. With the kentucky derby, this is always my biggest headache. I do not know why someone in foreign lands doesn't do time splits unless it is just too profitable, so they keep it to themselves.

Dan

Dan, there is a way of approximating a correlating value from TM to adjusted, but its untested.

You can go to horses that have run both in europe and the US. Like Bacio in the turf spring on saturday. Also Starlust in that race. I am just starting to look at this, but in the 9th race Notable Speech has made two successful forays from Europe to the US. I am sure there are others. Maybe with a little luck we could get an approximation from this data.

More later if it develops.

Bill

[Bill Lyster]

There might be another way to get a leg up on this info.

Record the TM speed rating and the Adj SR from the same race to see either a straight % drop or just a plain number differential. I would also keep info on the race distances because ASRs for races at 10f and up on the turf have a tendency to score very low.

Have you ever tried to match a possible contender from a race that was run from 8f to 9f on the turf to horses coming from 10.5t to 12 or more on turf? There is a significant gap most likely because the pace of these longer races is usually V. slow.

Also, if anyone out there knows of an existing study on the subject, please post info here. It would be much appreciated.

Thanx